Garuda Lions
Today
Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 5

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe

2 – 0 Full time

16′K. D. Toscano Bassa
22′V. Moreno
24′E. Cabrera
28′E. Olivera
38′A. Roman
58′M. PuertaJ. Obrian
58′K. D. Toscano BassaD. Torres
58′A. ZapataF. Fagundez
63′J. RodriguezN. Rodriguez
63′A. SarmientoE. Benitez
68′M. LoveraO. Fernandez
69′J. Obrian
71′F. Marin
74′E. CabreraJ. Zapata
74′S. VelasquezM. Casco
80′J. RengifoR. Escorcia
82′J. TorresE. Murillo
83′F. Fagundez
84′E. Benitez

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Jose Alexander Ortiz Novoa, Colombia

Atletico Nacional 60%
Draw 24%
Santa Fe 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 6
2 Shots on target 1
64 Possession % 36
1 Corners 3
11 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 3
1 Saves 1
605 Accurate passes 291

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico NacionalDrawSanta Fe
Model57.3%25.9%16.8%
Market61.2%22.8%16.0%
Final60.2%23.6%16.2%
Edge-1.0%+0.8%+0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atletico Nacional

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.83.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Nacio ↓ / Santa Fe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 12% 2 12% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe expected goals

Atletico Nacional 1.72
Santa Fe 0.83

Total expected goals: 2.55

Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe attack and defence ratings

Atletico Nacional

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Santa Fe

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: result vs prediction

Atletico Nacional 2 – 0 Santa Fe

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 5 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Nacional 60.2% 1.66 -1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.0% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score No 52.5% 1.91 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.8% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.7% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Nacional60.2%
Draw23.6%
Santa Fe16.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%
Both teams to scoreYes47.5%
No52.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.8%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)39.8%
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win32.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.5%
Loss42.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-012.3%
1-112.3%
2-011.5%

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe stats

Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe recent form

newest first
Atletico Nacional WWLWDW
Santa Fe WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Nacional record

  • They have won 28 of their 40 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 40 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 40 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Santa Fe record

  • They have won 16 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 38 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 38 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Atletico Nacional wins 4Draws 1Santa Fe wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-26Santa FeAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-2
2025-07-26Atletico NacionalSanta FePrimera A1-1
2025-06-13Santa FeAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-2
2025-06-08Atletico NacionalSanta FePrimera A1-2
2025-02-13Santa FeAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-2
2024-12-09Santa FeAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-3
2024-11-21Atletico NacionalSanta FePrimera A5-0
2024-11-05Atletico NacionalSanta FePrimera A1-1
2024-04-13Santa FeAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-0
2023-09-21Atletico NacionalSanta FePrimera A3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.2%, draw 22.8%, away 16.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.50 4.10 5.93
Bet365 1.53 4.00 6.25
BetVictor 1.50 4.10 5.75
Betano 1.60 4.35 6.00
Dafabet 1.55 4.10 5.60
Marathonbet 1.49 4.10 5.85
Pinnacle 1.54 4.15 6.11
SBO 1.48 3.66 5.03
William Hill 1.53 3.80 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.53 ▼ -0.01
X 4.10 ▲ +0.10
2 5.85 ▲ +0.35

6 snapshots recorded, from .