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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 5

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin

3 – 1 Full time

24′J. Caballero
43′F. Fabra
46′J. MontanoD. Catano
46′B. PerlazaA. Murillo
49′R. Julio
50′L. Vasquez
57′D. Catano
61′J. Castro
67′J. Medina
70′C. DajomeF. Bone
70′J. CaballeroM. Angel Amaya Pena
73′F. Sanguinetti
74′Yony GonzalezC. Lucumi
81′F. SanguinettiD. Duarte
82′D. Moreno
90′D. Duarte

Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, BogotaReferee: Bismark Elias Santiago Pitalua, Colombia

Internacional de Bogota 38%
Draw 28%
Independiente Medellin 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 5
36 Possession % 64
5 Corners 10
5 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2
5 Saves 4
222 Accurate passes 440

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityInternacional de BogotaDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model48.8%27.2%23.9%
Market33.8%28.6%37.6%
Final37.5%28.3%34.2%
Edge+3.8%-0.3%-3.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Internacional de Bogota

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.06.
  • The market prices Internacional de Bogota below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Internacional ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin expected goals

Internacional de Bogota 1.61
Independiente Medellin 1.06

Total expected goals: 2.67

Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings

Internacional de Bogota

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Independiente Medellin

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin: result vs prediction

Internacional de Bogota 3 – 1 Independiente Medellin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 5 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Internacional de Bogota 37.5% 2.66 +3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.1% 2.00 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.5% 1.87 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.7% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.2% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Internacional de Bogota37.5%
Draw28.3%
Independiente Medellin34.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%
Both teams to scoreYes53.5%
No46.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.8%
12 (either side)71.7%
X2 (draw or away)62.5%
Handicap -1Internacional de Bogota win26.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss51.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
1-09.9%
2-19.5%

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin stats

Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin recent form

newest first
Internacional de Bogota LWDDDL
Independiente Medellin LLWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin going into this match

league record before kick-off

Internacional de Bogota record

  • They have won 10 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 37 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Internacional de Bogota wins 4Draws 4Independiente Medellin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07Independiente MedellinInternacional de BogotaPrimera A1-2
2025-08-23Independiente MedellinInternacional de BogotaPrimera A3-1
2025-03-09Internacional de BogotaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A0-0
2024-10-06Independiente MedellinInternacional de BogotaPrimera A0-0
2024-03-23Internacional de BogotaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-2
2023-07-15Independiente MedellinInternacional de BogotaPrimera A2-2
2023-02-16Internacional de BogotaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-1
2022-08-05Independiente MedellinInternacional de BogotaPrimera A1-1
2022-06-17Internacional de BogotaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-5
2022-05-21Independiente MedellinInternacional de BogotaPrimera A2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.8%, draw 28.6%, away 37.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.70 3.22 2.47
Bet365 2.80 3.25 2.50
BetVictor 2.70 3.40 2.40
Betano 2.75 3.30 2.47
Dafabet 2.75 3.30 2.48
Marathonbet 2.70 3.22 2.47
Pinnacle 2.81 3.26 2.57
SBO 2.59 3.07 2.28
William Hill 2.75 3.10 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 ▲ +0.05
X 3.25 ▲ +0.03
2 2.47 —

5 snapshots recorded, from .