Alianza Valledupar
vs
Internacional de Bogota
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Valledupar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alianza Valledupar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota
| Probability | Alianza Valledupar | Draw | Internacional de Bogota |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.7% | 26.3% | 34.0% |
| Market | 39.3% | 29.6% | 31.1% |
| Final | 39.4% | 28.8% | 31.8% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.8% | +0.7% |
Why Alianza Valledupar
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (our 39.4% × 2.39 − 1).
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota match preview
Alianza Valledupar faces Internacional de Bogota in their upcoming Primera A match on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Alianza Valledupar has a 43% probability of winning, while Internacional de Bogota stands at 32%, with a 25% chance for a draw. The expected goals for Alianza Valledupar are 1.76, compared to 1.48 for Internacional de Bogota.
In terms of recent form, Alianza Valledupar has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Internacional de Bogota has three draws, two losses, and one win in the same timeframe. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Alianza Valledupar, with a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota attack and defence ratings
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 39.4% | 2.54 | +0.1% | 2.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 39.4% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Internacional de Bogota | 31.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Valledupar win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 60.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota stats
Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota recent form
| Alianza Valledupar |
WDLWLW |
| Internacional de Bogota |
WDDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota season so far
Alianza Valledupar record
- They have won 6 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional de Bogota record
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Internacional de Bogota | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Alianza Valledupar | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Internacional de Bogota | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.3%, draw 29.6%, away 31.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.08 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.15 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.39 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.08 | 2.98 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.14 | 3.12 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 2.88 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .