Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 16
Santa Fe
vs
Millonarios
3 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | D. Ruiz | ||
| 27′ | Sebastián Valencia | ||
| 33′ | Leonai SouzaM. Garcia | ||
| 37′ | Pablo Eduardo Repetto Aquino | ||
| 45′ | J. Torres | ||
| 46′ | Sergio Mosquera | ||
| 50′ | F. Fagundez | ||
| 52′ | Jhonier Guerrero | ||
| 57′ | S. MosqueraD. Banguero | ||
| 57′ | S. ValenciaM. Samuel | ||
| 57′ | J. GuerreroA. Estupinan | ||
| 60′ | Mateo Garcia Rojas | ||
| 64′ | M. LoveraE. Rodriguez | ||
| 71′ | E. Rodriguez | ||
| 73′ | A. Estupinan | ||
| 75′ | J. ObrianL. Palacios | ||
| 75′ | F. FagundezN. Bustos | ||
| 75′ | F. ChaverraD. Quintero | ||
| 76′ | Iván Scarpeta | ||
| 78′ | Helibelton Palacios | ||
| 83′ | Millonarios | ||
| 86′ | Helibelton Palacios | ||
| 89′ | H. RodallegaM. Puerta | ||
| 89′ | J. TorresK. D. Toscano Bassa | ||
| 90′ | Samuel Martín Díaz |
Santa Fe
34%
Draw
32%
Millonarios
34%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 7 | Saves | 3 |
| 238 | Accurate passes | 294 |
Santa Fe vs Millonarios overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santa Fe vs Millonarios
| Probability | Santa Fe | Draw | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 36.2% | 21.1% |
| Market | 31.1% | 30.1% | 38.8% |
| Final | 34.0% | 31.6% | 34.4% |
| Edge | +11.6% | +6.1% | -17.8% |
Why Millonarios
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
79%
2+ goals
50%
3+ goals
23%
No goals
21%
Santa Fe and Millonarios expected goals
Santa Fe
1.02
Millonarios
0.63
Total expected goals: 1.65
Santa Fe and Millonarios attack and defence ratings
Santa Fe
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
0.64 -36%
Millonarios
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
0.70 -30%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Santa Fe vs Millonarios: result vs prediction
Santa Fe 3 – 2 Millonarios
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Santa Fe vs Millonarios markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 34.4% | 2.91 | -17.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Fe | 34.0% |
| Draw | 31.6% | |
| Millonarios | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.1% |
| No | 68.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win | 5.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.3% | |
| Loss | 78.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.5% |
| 1-0 | 18.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Santa Fe vs Millonarios stats
Santa Fe and Millonarios recent form
| Santa Fe |
DDDDWD |
| Millonarios |
DWDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santa Fe and Millonarios going into this match
Santa Fe record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Millonarios record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Fe vs Millonarios head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Santa Fe wins
3Draws
5Millonarios wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Millonarios | Santa Fe | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Santa Fe | Millonarios | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Millonarios | Santa Fe | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Millonarios | Santa Fe | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-01 | Santa Fe | Millonarios | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-27 | Millonarios | Santa Fe | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-23 | Santa Fe | Millonarios | Primera A | 3-2 |
| 2024-12-06 | Millonarios | Santa Fe | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-27 | Santa Fe | Millonarios | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Santa Fe | Millonarios | Primera A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santa Fe vs Millonarios odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.1%, draw 30.1%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.10 | 2.41 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.42 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.10 | 2.39 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.23 | 2.46 |
| SBO | 2.75 | 2.96 | 2.23 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.00 ▲ +0.26
X
3.10 ▼ -0.05
2
2.40 ▼ -0.10
6 snapshots recorded, from .