America de Cali
vs
Cucuta
Garuda Lions Prediction: America de Cali
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.83.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — America de Cali is the favourite, not a value bet.
America de Cali vs Cucuta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: America de Cali vs Cucuta
| Probability | America de Cali | Draw | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 27.0% | 17.7% |
| Market | 69.8% | 19.3% | 10.9% |
| Final | 66.1% | 21.2% | 12.6% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +1.9% | +1.7% |
Why America de Cali
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.83.
Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (our 66.1% × 1.37 − 1).
America de Cali vs Cucuta match preview
America de Cali faces Cucuta in the Primera A with a projected probability of 59% for a home win, while Cucuta has a 16% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Expected goals suggest America de Cali will score around 1.79, compared to Cucuta's expected 0.84.
In terms of recent form, America de Cali has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches, while Cucuta has three wins, two losses, and a draw in the same period. Historically, the last encounter between these teams saw Cucuta secure a win, with America de Cali yet to record a victory against them. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
America de Cali and Cucuta expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
America de Cali and Cucuta attack and defence ratings
America de Cali
Cucuta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Llaneros
Before and after this match
America de Cali vs Cucuta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America de Cali | 66.1% | 1.51 | -3.6% | 1.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America de Cali | 66.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Cucuta | 12.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.3% |
| No | 53.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | America de Cali win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 1-1 | 12.7% | |
| 2-0 | 11.4% |
America de Cali vs Cucuta stats
America de Cali and Cucuta recent form
| America de Cali |
DLWWDL |
| Cucuta |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
America de Cali and Cucuta season so far
America de Cali record
- They have won 18 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cucuta record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
America de Cali vs Cucuta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cucuta | America de Cali | Primera A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
America de Cali vs Cucuta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.8%, draw 19.3%, away 11.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 4.80 | 8.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.75 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 4.80 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.37 | 4.70 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.34 | 4.90 | 8.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 4.80 | 8.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.12 | 9.54 |
| SBO | 1.30 | 4.14 | 6.76 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.60 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .