Bucaramanga
vs
Fortaleza FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bucaramanga
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
| Probability | Bucaramanga | Draw | Fortaleza FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 21.9% | 12.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.6% | 21.9% | 12.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bucaramanga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC match preview
Bucaramanga enters this match with a 66% probability of winning, while Fortaleza FC has a 12% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Bucaramanga, which aligns with their expected goals of 2.04 compared to Fortaleza FC's 0.79. Additionally, there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score at a rate of 48%.
In terms of recent form, Bucaramanga has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Fortaleza FC has struggled with three losses and two draws. The head-to-head record shows Bucaramanga winning two of the last five encounters, while Fortaleza FC has secured three victories. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC attack and defence ratings
Bucaramanga
Fortaleza FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pasto vs Junior
- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
- Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas — match page
- Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
- Llaneros v Chico — match page
Before and after this match
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 65.6% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Fortaleza FC | 12.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win | 41.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 34.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.5% |
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC stats
Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC recent form
| Bucaramanga |
DWLLDD |
| Fortaleza FC |
LLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC season so far
Bucaramanga record
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza FC record
- They have won 6 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Fortaleza FC | Bucaramanga | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Fortaleza FC | Bucaramanga | Primera A | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Bucaramanga | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fortaleza FC | Bucaramanga | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-14 | Bucaramanga | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.