Garuda Lions
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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 7

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima

1 – 0 Full time

3′Luis Sanchez
5′Jader Quinones
8′Dayro Moreno
19′Juan Castaño
19′Anderson Angulo
65′Homer Martinez
66′Mateo Zuleta GarcíaHelieyker Guzman
66′Jader QuinonesJaime Alvarado
72′Kelvin FlórezJader Valencia
73′Luis SanchezYordan Osorio
73′Edwar LópezJherson Mosquera
79′Dayro MorenoJefry Zapata
79′Andrés RoaJuan Pablo Nieto
84′Ever ValenciaShean Barbosa
84′Junior HernandezSantiago Joven Jiménez
90′Michael BarriosEdwin Torres
90′Jorge Hurtado

Estadio Palogrande, ManizalesReferee: Jonnathan Ortiz, Colombia

Once Caldas 45%
Draw 29%
Deportes Tolima 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 4
36 Possession % 64
3 Corners 6
15 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
4 Saves 4
242 Accurate passes 492

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOnce CaldasDrawDeportes Tolima
Model49.5%27.8%22.7%
Market43.4%29.4%27.2%
Final44.9%29.0%26.1%
Edge+6.1%-1.7%-4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Once Caldas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.99.
  • The market prices Once Caldas below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Once Caldas ↓ / Deportes Tolim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Once Caldas and Deportes Tolima expected goals

Once Caldas 1.56
Deportes Tolima 0.99

Total expected goals: 2.55

Once Caldas and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings

Once Caldas

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Deportes Tolima

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima: result vs prediction

Once Caldas 1 – 0 Deportes Tolima

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 7 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Once Caldas 44.9% 2.23 +6.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.0% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.9% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.5% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Once Caldas44.9%
Draw29.0%
Deportes Tolima26.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%
Both teams to scoreYes50.9%
No49.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.9%
12 (either side)71.0%
X2 (draw or away)55.1%
Handicap -1Once Caldas win26.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss50.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-011.0%
2-09.5%

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima stats

Once Caldas and Deportes Tolima recent form

newest first
Once Caldas LLWDDL
Deportes Tolima LWWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Once Caldas and Deportes Tolima going into this match

league record before kick-off

Once Caldas record

  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportes Tolima record

  • They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Once Caldas wins 3Draws 6Deportes Tolima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-15Deportes TolimaOnce CaldasPrimera A2-1
2025-08-24Once CaldasDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-1
2025-03-11Deportes TolimaOnce CaldasPrimera A2-0
2024-12-08Deportes TolimaOnce CaldasPrimera A1-0
2024-11-21Once CaldasDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-0
2024-10-25Deportes TolimaOnce CaldasPrimera A1-1
2024-05-26Once CaldasDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-1
2024-05-13Deportes TolimaOnce CaldasPrimera A1-1
2024-04-06Once CaldasDeportes TolimaPrimera A2-1
2023-07-21Deportes TolimaOnce CaldasPrimera A3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.3%, draw 29.5%, away 27.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.22 3.10 3.40
1xBet 2.13 3.14 3.42
Bet365 2.15 3.10 3.50
BetVictor 2.10 3.20 3.40
Betano 2.25 3.40 3.50
Betfair 2.05 3.30 3.40
Marathonbet 2.11 3.14 3.40
Pinnacle 2.18 3.26 3.55
SBO 1.98 2.94 3.09
William Hill 2.15 3.00 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.13 ▼ -0.07
X 3.14 ▲ +0.04
2 3.40 ▲ +0.10

17 snapshots recorded, from .