Garuda Lions
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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas

1 – 0 Full time

21′Mateo Zuleta García
25′Jader Quinones
45′Michael Barrios
45′Harrinson MancillaDiego Gabriel Chavez
45′Nicolas GilPatrick Preciado
49′Diego Gabriel Chavez
57′Andres Colorado
58′Mateo Garavito
64′Mateo GaravitoSantiago Jiménez
64′Matias PisanoYeiler Goez
66′Jader QuinonesHelieyker Guzman
75′Michael BarriosEdwin Torres
75′Dayro MorenoJefry Zapata
77′Yeiler Goez
83′Jonathan PerlazaSantiago Cordoba
85′Andrés RoaJuan Pablo Nieto
90′Diego Gabriel Chavez

Estadio Departamental Libertad, PastoReferee: Carlos Andres Marquez Ortega

Deportivo Pasto 31%
Draw 29%
Once Caldas 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 5
63 Possession % 37
5 Corners 4
10 Fouls 8
4 Offsides 3
5 Saves 4
421 Accurate passes 216

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo PastoDrawOnce Caldas
Model33.2%29.7%37.1%
Market29.9%29.3%40.8%
Final30.7%29.4%39.9%
Edge+3.4%+0.4%-3.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Once Caldas

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo Past ↓ / Once Caldas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 9% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas expected goals

Deportivo Pasto 1.20
Once Caldas 1.28

Total expected goals: 2.48

Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas attack and defence ratings

Deportivo Pasto

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Once Caldas

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas: result vs prediction

Deportivo Pasto 1 – 0 Once Caldas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Once Caldas 39.9% 2.51 -3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.9% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.7% 1.93 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.6% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.0% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo Pasto30.7%
Draw29.4%
Once Caldas39.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.1%
Under 2.554.9%
Both teams to scoreYes51.7%
No48.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.1%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)69.3%
Handicap -1Once Caldas win17.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss63.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
0-09.7%
0-19.4%

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas stats

Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas recent form

newest first
Deportivo Pasto WDLDLL
Once Caldas WLLWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Deportivo Pasto record

  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Once Caldas record

  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Deportivo Pasto wins 1Draws 5Once Caldas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-13Once CaldasDeportivo PastoPrimera A4-2
2025-11-09Once CaldasDeportivo PastoPrimera A1-0
2025-10-02Once CaldasDeportivo PastoCopa Colombia4-0
2025-08-29Deportivo PastoOnce CaldasCopa Colombia1-2
2025-05-18Deportivo PastoOnce CaldasPrimera A2-1
2024-10-14Once CaldasDeportivo PastoPrimera A2-1
2024-03-30Deportivo PastoOnce CaldasPrimera A0-0
2023-08-30Deportivo PastoOnce CaldasPrimera A1-0
2023-03-14Once CaldasDeportivo PastoPrimera A0-1
2022-08-23Deportivo PastoOnce CaldasPrimera A2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 29.3%, away 40.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.10 3.15 2.27
Bet365 3.25 3.10 2.30
BetVictor 3.00 3.20 2.25
Betano 3.10 3.20 2.32
Betfair 3.00 3.30 2.30
Marathonbet 3.08 3.15 2.25
Pinnacle 3.16 3.27 2.32
SBO 2.78 2.96 2.11
William Hill 3.00 3.10 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.09 ▲ +0.30
X 3.15 ▲ +0.09
2 2.26 ▼ -0.24

10 snapshots recorded, from .