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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 13

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional

2 – 3 Full time

20′Diego Duarte
34′Ian Carlo Poveda
42′Ronaldo Junior Julio Tobías
45′Larry Vásquez
45′Ronaldo Junior Julio TobíasJohan Caballero
45′Agustin IrazoqueCarlos Vivas
59′Juan RengifoJames Rodríguez
59′Chicho ArangoAlfredo Morelos
59′Kevin ParraMarlos Moreno
60′Facundo BonéCristián Dájome
62′Elías Lautaro Cabrera
71′Yeicar PerlazaAndrés Román
77′Elías Lautaro CabreraJuan Zapata
80′Dewar VictoriaRuben Manjarres
80′Diego DuarteYojan Garces
83′Yojan Garces
88′Andrés Román
90′Juan Zapata

Estadio Metropolitano de TechoReferee: Carlos Betancur

Internacional de Bogota 22%
Draw 26%
Atletico Nacional 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 8
27 Possession % 73
3 Corners 9
18 Fouls 10
5 Offsides 1
5 Saves 2
143 Accurate passes 532

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityInternacional de BogotaDrawAtletico Nacional
Model20.3%22.8%56.9%
Market22.4%27.3%50.3%
Final21.9%26.2%51.9%
Edge-2.1%-4.5%+6.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Nacional

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.18.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico Nacional below the model: +6.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Internacional ↓ / Atletico Nacio → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 6% 1 10% 10% 7% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Internacional de Bogota and Atletico Nacional expected goals

Internacional de Bogota 1.18
Atletico Nacional 2.07

Total expected goals: 3.26

Internacional de Bogota and Atletico Nacional attack and defence ratings

Internacional de Bogota

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Atletico Nacional

Attack 1.60 +60%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional: result vs prediction

Internacional de Bogota 2 – 3 Atletico Nacional

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Nacional 51.9% 1.93 +6.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.2% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.6% 1.62 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.1% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.1% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Internacional de Bogota21.9%
Draw26.2%
Atletico Nacional51.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%
Both teams to scoreYes61.6%
No38.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.1%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)78.1%
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win35.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss43.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
1-29.8%
0-28.3%

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional stats

Internacional de Bogota and Atletico Nacional recent form

newest first
Internacional de Bogota WDDDDD
Atletico Nacional WWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Internacional de Bogota and Atletico Nacional going into this match

league record before kick-off

Internacional de Bogota record

  • They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Atletico Nacional record

  • They have won 23 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Internacional de Bogota wins 2Draws 6Atletico Nacional wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-12Atletico NacionalInternacional de BogotaPrimera A7-1
2026-05-09Internacional de BogotaAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-2
2026-03-22Atletico NacionalInternacional de BogotaPrimera A3-0
2025-07-19Atletico NacionalInternacional de BogotaPrimera A3-1
2025-02-02Internacional de BogotaAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-1
2024-07-31Atletico NacionalInternacional de BogotaPrimera A0-1
2024-02-25Internacional de BogotaAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-0
2023-09-14Atletico NacionalInternacional de BogotaPrimera A5-0
2023-04-02Internacional de BogotaAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-0
2022-10-30Atletico NacionalInternacional de BogotaPrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.4%, draw 27.3%, away 50.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.21 3.40 1.83
Bet365 4.20 3.40 1.85
BetVictor 4.00 3.50 1.83
Betano 4.40 3.65 1.90
Betfair 4.00 3.60 1.85
Marathonbet 4.15 3.40 1.82
Pinnacle 4.24 3.46 1.88
SBO 3.18 2.97 1.93
William Hill 4.00 3.25 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.15 ▲ +0.37
X 3.40 ▼ -0.06
2 1.85 ▼ -0.08

8 snapshots recorded, from .