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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 12

Junior vs Independiente Medellin

2 – 0 Full time

17′Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
26′Halam Stiven Loboa DiazBaldomero Perlaza
26′Jeison MedinaCarlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
42′Agustín Martegani
45′Bryan CastrillónJannenson Sarmiento
58′Jermein Pena
63′Francisco FydriszewskiHarold Rivera
63′Guillermo CelisGuillermo Paiva
66′Agustín MarteganiNivaldo Yunior Erazo Hernandez
66′John MontanoDiego Moreno
72′Kevin Andres Mantilla Camargo
75′Teófilo Gutiérrez
77′Teófilo GutiérrezYimmi Chará
77′Kevin Andres Mantilla CamargoLuis Escorcia
79′Hayen Palacios
84′Jermein PenaDaniel Socarras
90′Mauro SilveiraJefferson Martínez
90′Hayen Palacios
90′Didier MorenoYony González

Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, BarranquillaReferee: Jhon Ospina

Junior 42%
Draw 27%
Independiente Medellin 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 4
64 Possession % 36
2 Corners 6
18 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 1
4 Saves 8
407 Accurate passes 187

Junior vs Independiente Medellin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Junior vs Independiente Medellin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJuniorDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model41.6%24.3%34.1%
Market42.2%28.3%29.5%
Final42.1%27.3%30.6%
Edge-0.6%-4.0%+4.6%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Junior ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Junior and Independiente Medellin expected goals

Junior 1.82
Independiente Medellin 1.63

Total expected goals: 3.45

Junior and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings

Junior

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Independiente Medellin

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Junior vs Independiente Medellin: result vs prediction

Junior 2 – 0 Independiente Medellin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Junior vs Independiente Medellin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Junior 42.1% 2.38 -0.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.9% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.3% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.7% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.3% 1.71 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Junior42.1%
Draw27.3%
Independiente Medellin30.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
Both teams to scoreYes68.3%
No31.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.4%
12 (either side)72.7%
X2 (draw or away)57.9%
Handicap -1Junior win22.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss58.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
2-18.6%
1-27.7%

Junior vs Independiente Medellin stats

Junior and Independiente Medellin recent form

newest first
Junior WLDDLD
Independiente Medellin WDLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Junior and Independiente Medellin going into this match

league record before kick-off

Junior record

  • They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Junior vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Junior wins 2Draws 5Independiente Medellin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-20Independiente MedellinJuniorPrimera A2-0
2025-12-08Independiente MedellinJuniorPrimera A2-1
2025-11-20JuniorIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-0
2025-09-21Independiente MedellinJuniorPrimera A2-2
2025-06-11Independiente MedellinJuniorPrimera A1-0
2025-06-08JuniorIndependiente MedellinPrimera A0-1
2025-04-06JuniorIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-0
2024-10-03JuniorIndependiente MedellinCopa Colombia2-0
2024-09-11Independiente MedellinJuniorCopa Colombia2-0
2024-07-28Independiente MedellinJuniorPrimera A0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Junior vs Independiente Medellin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.2%, draw 28.3%, away 29.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.18 3.28 3.18
Bet365 2.25 3.20 3.25
BetVictor 2.20 3.40 3.00
Betano 2.22 3.30 3.15
Betfair 2.15 3.50 3.10
Marathonbet 2.16 3.28 3.15
Pinnacle 2.27 3.37 3.17
SBO 2.09 3.10 2.84
William Hill 2.20 3.10 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▼ -0.01
X 3.28 ▲ +0.10
2 3.15 ▼ -0.02

10 snapshots recorded, from .