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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 3

Atletico Nacional vs Junior

3 – 1 Full time

8′Andrés Sarmiento
17′Andrés Román
20′Neider Parra Moya
22′Déiber Caicedo
24′Guillermo Paiva
51′Andrés SarmientoJuan Rosa
52′Elías Lautaro Cabrera
62′Yeicar PerlazaEdwin Cardona
62′Bryan CastrillónCristian Barrios
62′Teófilo GutiérrezLuis Muriel
65′Pablo Ortíz
65′Milton Casco
70′Fabian Bernal
71′Andrés Román
73′Fabian BernalGuillermo Celis
73′Déiber CaicedoJannenson Sarmiento
74′James RodríguezJuan Zapata
74′Elías Lautaro CabreraMateus Uribe
74′Edwin Cardona
74′Ian Carlo PovedaEmanuel Benitez
77′Ian Carlo Poveda
83′Juan David RíosJesús Rivas
89′Jermein Pena
90′Daniel Rivera

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Andres Rojas

Atletico Nacional 65%
Draw 21%
Junior 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 2
58 Possession % 42
7 Corners 5
13 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 4
1 Saves 3
367 Accurate passes 241

Atletico Nacional vs Junior overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Junior

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico NacionalDrawJunior
Model62.8%20.4%16.7%
Market65.2%20.7%14.0%
Final64.6%20.7%14.7%
Edge-2.4%-0.3%+2.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Nacional

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Nacio ↓ / Junior → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 7% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Atletico Nacional and Junior expected goals

Atletico Nacional 2.34
Junior 1.16

Total expected goals: 3.50

Atletico Nacional and Junior attack and defence ratings

Atletico Nacional

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Junior

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Nacional vs Junior: result vs prediction

Atletico Nacional 3 – 1 Junior

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 3 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Atletico Nacional vs Junior markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Nacional 64.6% 1.55 -2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.8% 1.59 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.3% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Atletico Nacional win 41.5% 2.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Nacional64.6%
Draw20.7%
Junior14.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%
Both teams to scoreYes62.8%
No37.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.3%
12 (either side)79.3%
X2 (draw or away)35.4%
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win41.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss37.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.6%
1-19.0%
2-08.3%

Atletico Nacional vs Junior stats

Atletico Nacional and Junior recent form

newest first
Atletico Nacional DLWWWW
Junior WWLDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional and Junior going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Nacional record

  • They have won 24 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Junior record

  • They have won 15 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Nacional vs Junior head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Atletico Nacional wins 3Draws 4Junior wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-08Atletico NacionalJuniorPrimera A1-0
2026-06-03JuniorAtletico NacionalPrimera A3-0
2026-03-11JuniorAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-4
2025-11-30JuniorAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-1
2025-11-27Atletico NacionalJuniorPrimera A1-1
2025-11-14JuniorAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-1
2025-05-25Atletico NacionalJuniorPrimera A2-3
2024-09-27Atletico NacionalJuniorPrimera A2-0
2024-03-03JuniorAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-0
2023-09-17JuniorAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Nacional vs Junior odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.2%, draw 20.7%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.43 4.98 6.65
Bet365 1.42 4.50 7.00
BetVictor 1.40 4.50 6.50
Betano 1.50 4.80 6.80
Betfair 1.40 4.50 6.50
Marathonbet 1.44 4.05 6.90
Pinnacle 1.47 4.07 7.77
SBO 1.45 3.82 5.13
William Hill 1.40 4.50 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.43 ▼ -0.01
X 4.50 ▲ +0.20
2 6.65 ▲ +0.31

11 snapshots recorded, from .