Garuda Lions
Today
Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 3

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar

1 – 2 Full time

8′Jhonier Alomia
10′Edgar Pardo
30′Deinner Quiñones
32′Jefferson Mena
36′Jhonier Alomia
37′Yesus Cabrera
45′A. MayaSebastián Viveros Lopez
45′Jhonier AlomiaDaniel Polanco
51′Misael MartinezJosy Pérez
67′Edgar PardoCharly Villegas González
67′Deinner Quiñones
69′Deinner QuiñonesKevin Moreno
75′E. SarriaI. Camargo
76′S. MeraSander Navarro
80′Israel AlbaSamuel Nieto
80′Jesús MuñozJeison Andrés Osorio Cabrales
80′Yesus CabreraDelio Ramírez

Estadio La Independencia, TunjaReferee: C. Ortega

Chico 45%
Draw 30%
Alianza Valledupar 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 5
2 Shots on target 4
64 Possession % 36
11 Corners 2
9 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 1
2 Saves 1
404 Accurate passes 200

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chico vs Alianza Valledupar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChicoDrawAlianza Valledupar
Model52.2%27.6%20.2%
Market42.1%30.4%27.5%
Final44.6%29.7%25.7%
Edge+10.1%-2.8%-7.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Chico

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Chico below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chico ↓ / Alianza Valled → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 12% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Chico and Alianza Valledupar expected goals

Chico 1.58
Alianza Valledupar 0.90

Total expected goals: 2.48

Chico and Alianza Valledupar attack and defence ratings

Chico

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Alianza Valledupar

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar: result vs prediction

Chico 1 – 2 Alianza Valledupar

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 3 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chico 44.6% 2.24 +10.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.9% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score No 51.7% 1.93 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.3% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.8% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chico44.6%
Draw29.7%
Alianza Valledupar25.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.1%
Under 2.554.9%
Both teams to scoreYes48.3%
No51.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.3%
12 (either side)70.3%
X2 (draw or away)55.4%
Handicap -1Chico win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss47.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
1-012.0%
2-010.5%

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar stats

Chico and Alianza Valledupar recent form

newest first
Chico WWDDLL
Alianza Valledupar WLLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chico and Alianza Valledupar going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chico record

  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 26 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alianza Valledupar record

  • They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Chico wins 3Draws 3Alianza Valledupar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-28Alianza ValleduparChicoPrimera A1-1
2025-11-09Alianza ValleduparChicoPrimera A2-0
2025-05-18ChicoAlianza ValleduparPrimera A2-1
2024-08-24Alianza ValleduparChicoPrimera A4-0
2024-02-19ChicoAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-0
2023-09-06Alianza ValleduparChicoPrimera A1-1
2023-01-26ChicoAlianza ValleduparPrimera A2-0
2021-04-01ChicoAlianza ValleduparPrimera A2-0
2020-03-08ChicoAlianza ValleduparPrimera A2-2
2018-10-13Alianza ValleduparChicoPrimera A1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.1%, draw 30.4%, away 27.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.20 3.05 3.37
Bet365 2.25 3.10 3.50
BetVictor 2.20 3.00 3.40
Betano 2.22 3.10 3.40
Betfair 2.25 3.00 3.30
Marathonbet 2.18 3.05 3.34
Pinnacle 2.23 3.15 3.47
SBO 2.17 2.84 2.96
William Hill 2.20 2.90 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▼ -0.43
X 3.05 ▲ +0.10
2 3.37 ▲ +0.57

6 snapshots recorded, from .