Garuda Lions
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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Chico vs Once Caldas

2 – 0 Full time

2′S. Mera
19′Santiago Mera
36′Jacobo Pimentel
45′F. Cifuentes
46′S. MeraY. Cabrera
46′P. GomezM. Zuleta
57′Cristian Blanco
58′J. PatinoA. Correa
58′A. RoaJ. Quinones
60′J. PimentelD. Polanco
67′Mateo Zuleta
69′F. CifuentesS. Viveros
71′J. A. Zapata RamirezH. Guzman
72′M. BarriosE. Torres
75′Jader Quinones
76′Sebastian Salazar
90′Andres Correa
90′ChicoA. Maya

Estadio La Independencia, TunjaReferee: Andres Rojas

Chico 23%
Draw 27%
Once Caldas 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

3 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 6
28 Possession % 72
4 Corners 8
17 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 4
6 Saves 0
137 Accurate passes 434

Chico vs Once Caldas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chico vs Once Caldas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChicoDrawOnce Caldas
Model19.9%26.5%53.6%
Market23.9%27.1%49.0%
Final22.9%27.0%50.1%
Edge-4.0%-0.6%+4.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Once Caldas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Once Caldas below the model: +4.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chico ↓ / Once Caldas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 10% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Chico and Once Caldas expected goals

Chico 0.94
Once Caldas 1.68

Total expected goals: 2.62

Chico and Once Caldas attack and defence ratings

Chico

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Once Caldas

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chico vs Once Caldas: result vs prediction

Chico 2 – 0 Once Caldas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Chico vs Once Caldas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Once Caldas 50.1% 1.99 +4.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.3% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.8% 1.97 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.1% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.4% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chico22.9%
Draw27.0%
Once Caldas50.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.7%
Under 2.551.3%
Both teams to scoreYes50.8%
No49.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.9%
12 (either side)73.0%
X2 (draw or away)77.1%
Handicap -1Once Caldas win30.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss46.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
0-111.1%
0-210.3%

Chico vs Once Caldas stats

Chico and Once Caldas recent form

newest first
Chico DDLLLW
Once Caldas WDDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chico and Once Caldas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chico record

  • They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 25 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Once Caldas record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chico vs Once Caldas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Chico wins 3Draws 6Once Caldas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-28Once CaldasChicoPrimera A3-0
2025-09-26Once CaldasChicoPrimera A5-2
2025-04-13ChicoOnce CaldasPrimera A0-0
2024-07-16ChicoOnce CaldasPrimera A0-1
2024-01-20Once CaldasChicoPrimera A2-1
2023-10-09ChicoOnce CaldasPrimera A2-1
2023-04-26Once CaldasChicoPrimera A1-1
2021-03-27Once CaldasChicoPrimera A4-2
2020-12-05Once CaldasChicoPrimera A1-0
2020-10-17ChicoOnce CaldasPrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chico vs Once Caldas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.5%, draw 28.0%, away 47.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.80 3.30 1.99
1xBet 3.88 3.46 1.90
Bet365 4.00 3.40 1.90
BetVictor 3.90 3.30 1.90
Betano 3.70 3.30 2.00
Betfair 3.60 3.30 2.00
Dafabet 3.70 3.30 2.01
Marathonbet 3.84 3.48 1.88
Pinnacle 3.94 3.63 1.92
SBO 3.20 2.91 1.95
Unibet 3.60 3.30 2.07
William Hill 3.75 3.20 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.89 ▲ +0.29
X 3.43 ▲ +0.17
2 1.90 ▼ -0.11

9 snapshots recorded, from .