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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 8

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas

1 – 2 Full time

27′S. Navarro
33′J. CastilloE. Cabezas
41′J. A. Zapata Ramirez
46′E. TorresM. Zuleta
54′T. WilkeJ. Salas
56′S. Navarro
57′A. Correa
61′J. Solis
62′A. CorreaJ. Patino
68′P. GomezD. Moreno
69′M. BarriosH. Guzman
79′J. A. Zapata RamirezJ. Quinones
82′D. Moreno
84′S. VivasB. Mejia
84′S. NavarroA. Batioja
84′J. BlancoJ. Sinisterra

Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, BogotaReferee: Santiago Bismarks

Fortaleza FC 38%
Draw 31%
Once Caldas 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 21
2 Shots on target 7
44 Possession % 56
0 Corners 4
7 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 0
5 Saves 1
328 Accurate passes 411

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFortaleza FCDrawOnce Caldas
Model38.5%31.1%30.5%
Market———
Final38.5%31.1%30.5%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fortaleza FC ↓ / Once Caldas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 10% 1 11% 15% 2 8% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 12%

Fortaleza FC and Once Caldas expected goals

Fortaleza FC 1.22
Once Caldas 1.06

Total expected goals: 2.27

Fortaleza FC and Once Caldas attack and defence ratings

Fortaleza FC

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Once Caldas

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas: result vs prediction

Fortaleza FC 1 – 2 Once Caldas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fortaleza FC 38.5% 2.60 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.3% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score No 52.8% 1.90 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 69.5% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.5% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fortaleza FC38.5%
Draw31.1%
Once Caldas30.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.7%
Under 2.560.3%
Both teams to scoreYes47.2%
No52.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.5%
12 (either side)68.9%
X2 (draw or away)61.5%
Handicap -1Fortaleza FC win17.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss61.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-011.6%
1-011.2%

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas stats

Fortaleza FC and Once Caldas recent form

newest first
Fortaleza FC DLWLDD
Once Caldas DDLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fortaleza FC and Once Caldas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Fortaleza FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Once Caldas record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Fortaleza FC wins 1Draws 3Once Caldas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21Once CaldasFortaleza FCPrimera A4-2
2025-07-20Fortaleza FCOnce CaldasPrimera A2-1
2025-02-01Once CaldasFortaleza FCPrimera A2-1
2024-11-02Once CaldasFortaleza FCPrimera A0-2
2024-04-26Once CaldasFortaleza FCCopa Colombia0-1
2024-04-13Fortaleza FCOnce CaldasPrimera A2-0
2024-04-09Fortaleza FCOnce CaldasCopa Colombia2-1
2016-08-02Once CaldasFortaleza FCPrimera A3-0
2016-02-24Fortaleza FCOnce CaldasPrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.