Boca Juniors
vs
Sao Paulo
1 – 0 Full time
| 52′ | Miguel Merentiel | ||
| 63′ | LucianoG. Santana | ||
| 70′ | Jonathan Calleri | ||
| 79′ | Miguel MerentielS. Villa | ||
| 81′ | Marcos AntonioDanielzinho | ||
| 82′ | Jonathan CalleriDjhordney | ||
| 85′ | A. VelascoE. Valencia | ||
| 90′ | Enner Valencia | ||
| 90′ | Pablo MaiaNewton | ||
| 90′ | ArturAndre Silva |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 385 | Accurate passes | 369 |
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo
| Probability | Boca Juniors | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 29.8% | 20.9% |
| Market | 50.5% | 30.2% | 19.3% |
| Final | 50.2% | 30.1% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -1.1% | -0.5% | +1.6% |
Why Boca Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.83.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo attack and defence ratings
Boca Juniors
Sao Paulo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo: result vs prediction
Boca Juniors 1 – 0 Sao Paulo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 50.2% | 1.99 | -1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 50.2% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Sao Paulo | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.9% |
| No | 56.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo stats
Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo recent form
| Boca Juniors |
DDWDWD |
| Sao Paulo |
WWLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo going into this match
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 30.2%, away 19.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.81 | 3.20 | 4.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.98 |
| 888Sport | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.00 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.20 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.15 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.06 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 3.15 | 4.81 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 2.97 | 4.25 |
| Superbet | 1.90 | 3.10 | 4.90 |
| Unibet | 1.83 | 3.10 | 4.90 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
32 snapshots recorded, from .