CONMEBOL Sudamericana
·
Full time
·Quarter-finals
Santos
vs
Atletico-MG
4 – 2 Full time
| 1′ | Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte | ||
| 20′ | Reinier Jesus Carvalho | ||
| 28′ | Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović | ||
| 38′ | Rodinei | ||
| 41′ | Reinier Jesus Carvalho | ||
| 45′ | Luan Peres | ||
| 45′ | Gustavo HenriqueArthur Melo | ||
| 45′ | Luan PeresLucas Veríssimo | ||
| 45′ | Reinier Jesus CarvalhoMateo Cassierra | ||
| 71′ | Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteIgor Gomes | ||
| 71′ | Maycon de Andrade BarberanNatanael Moreira Milouski | ||
| 72′ | Gabriel Barbosa | ||
| 81′ | Benjamín RollheiserChristian Oliva | ||
| 81′ | Alan FrancoGustavo Scarpa | ||
| 81′ | Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves VojnovićThiago Borbas | ||
| 86′ | RonyJoão Ananias | ||
| 90′ | Tomás Cuello | ||
| 90′ | RodineiIgor Vinicius | ||
| 91′ | Gustavo Scarpa | ||
| 93′ | Igor Gomes | ||
| 94′ | Gabriel Bontempo | ||
| 96′ | Thiago Borbas |
Santos
49%
Draw
27%
Atletico-MG
24%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 421 | Accurate passes | 395 |
Santos vs Atletico-MG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santos vs Atletico-MG
| Probability | Santos | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.1% | 31.2% | 35.7% |
| Market | 53.9% | 26.0% | 20.1% |
| Final | 48.7% | 27.3% | 24.0% |
| Edge | -20.8% | +5.1% | +15.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
12%
Santos and Atletico-MG expected goals
Santos
1.11
Atletico-MG
1.16
Total expected goals: 2.28
Santos and Atletico-MG attack and defence ratings
Santos
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Atletico-MG
Attack
1.27 +27%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Santos vs Atletico-MG: result vs prediction
Santos 4 – 2 Atletico-MG
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Santos vs Atletico-MG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 48.7% | 2.05 | -20.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 48.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Atletico-MG | 24.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos win | 13.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 66.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.6% | |
| 0-1 | 10.6% |
Santos vs Atletico-MG stats
Santos and Atletico-MG recent form
| Santos |
WLWDWL |
| Atletico-MG |
WWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santos and Atletico-MG going into this match
Santos record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Santos vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Santos wins
3Draws
4Atletico-MG wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Atletico-MG | Santos | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Santos | Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-17 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-23 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-06 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2022-06-11 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-13 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santos vs Atletico-MG odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.0%, draw 26.5%, away 20.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.35 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.94 |
| 888Sport | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.62 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.74 | 5.00 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 2.95 | 3.63 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.75 ▼ -0.17
X
3.62 ▲ +0.28
2
4.70 ▲ +0.67
14 snapshots recorded, from .