Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
Fluminense
vs
Vasco DA Gama
1 – 0 Full time
| 9′ | Andrés Gómez | ||
| 21′ | Juan Pablo Freytes | ||
| 21′ | Daniel Fuzato | ||
| 40′ | Paulo Henrique | ||
| 45′ | Ignácio da Silva Oliveira | ||
| 45′ | Hulk | ||
| 45′ | Yeferson Soteldo | ||
| 54′ | Facundo Colidio | ||
| 58′ | Paulo Henrique Chagas de LimaLuciano Acosta | ||
| 60′ | Bruno Duarte Da SilvaAdson | ||
| 61′ | Luciano Acosta | ||
| 74′ | Yeferson SoteldoKevin Serna | ||
| 74′ | Tchê TchêClaudio Spinelli | ||
| 74′ | Paulo HenriqueJose Luis Rodriguez | ||
| 84′ | Carlos CuestaRamon Rique Santos De Souza Barros | ||
| 84′ | AdsonMarino Hinestroza | ||
| 85′ | HulkGuilherme Arana | ||
| 85′ | Claudio Rodrigues GomesJulio César Lima Fidelis |
Fluminense
43%
Draw
29%
Vasco DA Gama
29%
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 356 | Accurate passes | 447 |
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama
| Probability | Fluminense | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 29.2% | 29.8% |
| Market | 43.1% | 28.8% | 28.2% |
| Final | 42.5% | 28.9% | 28.6% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +0.4% | +1.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
46%
No goals
9%
Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
Fluminense
1.38
Vasco DA Gama
1.14
Total expected goals: 2.52
Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings
Fluminense
Attack
1.08 +8%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Vasco DA Gama
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama: result vs prediction
Fluminense 1 – 0 Vasco DA Gama
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 42.5% | 2.35 | -2.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 42.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama stats
Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama recent form
| Fluminense |
DWDWDD |
| Vasco DA Gama |
WWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama going into this match
Fluminense record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Fluminense wins
2Draws
4Vasco DA Gama wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Fluminense | Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil | 1-3 |
| 2026-08-01 | Vasco DA Gama | Fluminense | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Vasco DA Gama | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Fluminense | Vasco DA Gama | Carioca - 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Vasco DA Gama | Fluminense | Carioca - 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Fluminense | Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Vasco DA Gama | Fluminense | Copa Do Brasil | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Vasco DA Gama | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Fluminense | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-06 | Vasco DA Gama | Fluminense | Carioca - 1 | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 28.1%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.73 | 3.55 | 4.80 |
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.42 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 3.32 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.32 | 3.39 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.20 ▲ +0.46
X
3.29 ▼ -0.29
2
3.35 ▼ -1.40
17 snapshots recorded, from .