Atletico Paranaense
vs
Fluminense
3 – 3 Full time
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
| Probability | Atletico Paranaense | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.9% | 30.2% | 20.9% |
| Market | 43.7% | 29.5% | 26.8% |
| Final | 45.0% | 29.6% | 25.4% |
| Edge | +5.2% | +0.7% | -5.9% |
Why Atletico Paranaense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico Paranaense below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense: result vs prediction
Atletico Paranaense 3 – 3 Fluminense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 45.0% | 2.22 | +5.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 45.0% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Fluminense | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Paranaense win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense stats
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense recent form
| Atletico Paranaense |
WDWLWD |
| Fluminense |
WDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense going into this match
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Fluminense | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 29.5%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.24 | 3.60 |
| 888Sport | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.19 | 3.62 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 2.92 | 3.06 |
| Unibet | 2.14 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .