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Brazil Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 24

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense

2 – 3 Full time

Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de JaneiroReferee: Andre Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento

Botafogo 37%
Draw 30%
Atletico Paranaense 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBotafogoDrawAtletico Paranaense
Model33.6%34.1%32.3%
Market38.5%29.0%32.5%
Final37.2%30.3%32.4%
Edge-4.9%+5.1%-0.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Botafogo ↓ / Atletico Paran → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 12% 1 13% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 59%
3+ goals 31%
No goals 16%

Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense expected goals

Botafogo 0.98
Atletico Paranaense 0.96

Total expected goals: 1.94

Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings

Botafogo

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Atletico Paranaense

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense: result vs prediction

Botafogo 2 – 3 Atletico Paranaense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Botafogo 37.2% 2.68 -4.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.2% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score No 60.0% 1.67 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.7% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.4% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Botafogo37.2%
Draw30.3%
Atletico Paranaense32.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.8%
Under 2.569.2%
Both teams to scoreYes40.0%
No60.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.6%
12 (either side)69.7%
X2 (draw or away)62.8%
Handicap -1Botafogo win13.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss66.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-015.7%
1-114.9%
1-012.7%

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense stats

Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense recent form

newest first
Botafogo WLLDWD
Atletico Paranaense DWLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense going into this match

league record before kick-off

Botafogo record

  • They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Paranaense record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Botafogo wins 2Draws 5Atletico Paranaense wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-29Atletico ParanaenseBotafogoBrazil Serie A4-1
2024-10-05Atletico ParanaenseBotafogoSerie A0-1
2024-06-19BotafogoAtletico ParanaenseSerie A1-1
2023-10-22BotafogoAtletico ParanaenseSerie A1-1
2023-06-03Atletico ParanaenseBotafogoSerie A1-0
2023-06-01BotafogoAtletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil1-0
2023-05-18Atletico ParanaenseBotafogoCopa Do Brasil3-2
2022-11-13Atletico ParanaenseBotafogoSerie A3-0
2022-07-24BotafogoAtletico ParanaenseSerie A2-0
2021-01-06BotafogoAtletico ParanaenseSerie A0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 29.0%, away 32.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.45 3.35 2.76
1xBet 2.46 3.22 3.08
888Sport 2.40 3.20 2.75
Bet365 2.45 3.40 2.88
BetVictor 2.38 3.40 2.88
Betano 2.47 3.35 3.15
Betfair 2.30 3.20 3.00
Dafabet 2.47 3.40 2.95
Marathonbet 2.39 3.12 3.00
Pinnacle 2.46 3.27 3.12
SBO 2.41 3.07 2.71
Superbet 2.45 3.35 2.90
Unibet 2.45 3.15 2.90
William Hill 2.40 3.20 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▲ +0.20
X 3.25 ▲ +0.13
2 2.90 ▼ -0.43

7 snapshots recorded, from .