Santos
vs
Mirassol
1 – 1 Full time
Santos vs Mirassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santos vs Mirassol
| Probability | Santos | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.4% | 20.1% | 9.5% |
| Market | 51.1% | 27.0% | 22.0% |
| Final | 55.9% | 25.3% | 18.9% |
| Edge | +19.3% | -6.9% | -12.4% |
Why Santos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santos below the model: +19.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santos and Mirassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Santos and Mirassol attack and defence ratings
Santos
Mirassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Santos vs Mirassol: result vs prediction
Santos 1 – 1 Mirassol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Santos vs Mirassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 55.9% | 1.79 | +19.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Santos win | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 55.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Mirassol | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos win | 46.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 29.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 3-0 | 9.8% |
Santos vs Mirassol stats
Santos and Mirassol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santos and Mirassol going into this match
Santos record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Mirassol record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
Santos vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Mirassol | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Santos | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Mirassol | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santos vs Mirassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 26.9%, away 22.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.88 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.36 |
| 888Sport | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.86 | 3.65 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.67 | 4.45 |
| SBO | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Superbet | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.25 |
| Unibet | 1.89 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .