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Brazil Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 26

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense

3 – 1 Full time

30′Matheus Pereira
33′Gabriel Rojas
45′Joao Cruz
46′G. RojasL. Villalba
46′Arthur DiasL. Esquivel
46′JadsonJ. Portilla
62′Juan Felipe Aguirre
64′Fabrício Bruno
65′Joao CruzB. Zapelli
65′LeozinhoK. A. Calderon Vargas
70′K. ArroyoWesley
71′L. Romero
79′Mycael
81′K. ViverosRenan Peixoto
82′Kaio Jorge
87′GersonJ. Costa
90′Matheus HenriqueZe Lucas
90′Kaio JorgeL. Rodriguez

Estádio Mineirão, Bello HarisantaReferee: Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos

Cruzeiro 50%
Draw 26%
Atletico Paranaense 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 17
6 Shots on target 7
61 Possession % 39
7 Corners 2
9 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 2
6 Saves 3
515 Accurate passes 315

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCruzeiroDrawAtletico Paranaense
Model43.5%27.7%28.8%
Market51.9%25.8%22.4%
Final49.8%26.2%24.0%
Edge-8.4%+1.9%+6.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Cruzeiro

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.20.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cruzeiro ↓ / Atletico Paran → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense expected goals

Cruzeiro 1.52
Atletico Paranaense 1.20

Total expected goals: 2.73

Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings

Cruzeiro

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Atletico Paranaense

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense: result vs prediction

Cruzeiro 3 – 1 Atletico Paranaense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cruzeiro 49.8% 2.01 -8.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.3% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.9% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.5% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cruzeiro49.8%
Draw26.2%
Atletico Paranaense24.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%
Both teams to scoreYes55.9%
No44.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.0%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)50.2%
Handicap -1Cruzeiro win22.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss56.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
2-19.1%
1-08.8%

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense stats

Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense recent form

newest first
Cruzeiro LLDWLW
Atletico Paranaense DWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cruzeiro record

  • They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Paranaense record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Cruzeiro wins 4Draws 4Atletico Paranaense wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-18Atletico ParanaenseCruzeiroBrazil Serie A2-1
2024-10-26Atletico ParanaenseCruzeiroSerie A3-0
2024-06-26CruzeiroAtletico ParanaenseSerie A2-0
2023-11-30CruzeiroAtletico ParanaenseSerie A1-1
2023-07-29Atletico ParanaenseCruzeiroSerie A3-3
2019-11-07Atletico ParanaenseCruzeiroSerie A0-0
2019-07-27CruzeiroAtletico ParanaenseSerie A0-2
2018-11-10Atletico ParanaenseCruzeiroSerie A2-0
2018-07-22CruzeiroAtletico ParanaenseSerie A2-1
2018-07-16CruzeiroAtletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 26.8%, away 22.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.84 3.30 4.50
1xBet 1.85 3.76 4.22
Bet365 1.83 3.60 4.33
BetVictor 1.80 3.70 4.20
Betano 1.91 3.35 4.35
Betfair 1.80 3.25 4.20
Dafabet 1.90 3.40 4.40
Marathonbet 1.80 3.66 4.10
Pinnacle 1.86 3.65 4.49
William Hill 1.80 3.40 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▼ -0.05
X 3.66 ▲ +0.33
2 4.21 ▼ -0.05

19 snapshots recorded, from .