Atletico-MG
vs
Vitoria
2 – 1 Full time
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Vitoria
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.5% | 26.2% | 9.2% |
| Market | 54.3% | 26.1% | 19.6% |
| Final | 56.9% | 26.1% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +10.2% | +0.1% | -10.3% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.45.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +10.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico-MG and Vitoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Atletico-MG and Vitoria attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria: result vs prediction
Atletico-MG 2 – 1 Vitoria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 56.9% | 1.76 | +10.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 36.3% | 2.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 56.9% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Vitoria | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.4% |
| No | 70.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 36.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.2% | |
| Loss | 35.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 20.0% |
| 2-0 | 16.4% | |
| 0-0 | 14.2% |
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria stats
Atletico-MG and Vitoria recent form
| Atletico-MG |
DDDWWD |
| Vitoria |
LLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Vitoria going into this match
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Vitoria | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Vitoria | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Atletico-MG | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 26.1%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.64 | 5.04 |
| 888Sport | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.77 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.54 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.69 | 4.86 |
| SBO | 1.71 | 3.17 | 4.04 |
| Superbet | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.85 |
| Unibet | 1.71 | 3.55 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .