Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 25
Bahia
vs
Internacional
3 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | Alan Patrick | ||
| 23′ | Erick Pulga | ||
| 39′ | Cristian Olivera | ||
| 39′ | Alexandro Bernabei | ||
| 42′ | Erick Pulga | ||
| 45′ | Erick | ||
| 52′ | Vitinho | ||
| 54′ | Guillermo Maripán | ||
| 56′ | C. OliveraAdemir | ||
| 56′ | ErickMichel Araujo | ||
| 64′ | Thiago MaiaCalebe | ||
| 64′ | A. BernabeiA. Sanabria | ||
| 66′ | Román Gómez | ||
| 72′ | Michel Araújo | ||
| 76′ | R. GomezMarcos Victor | ||
| 76′ | Matheus BahiaJuninho | ||
| 76′ | Alan PatrickJ. Carbonero | ||
| 84′ | RodrigoCaio Alexandre | ||
| 84′ | Erick PulgaRuan Pablo | ||
| 87′ | VitinhoN. Eliasson | ||
| 90′ | David Duarte |
Bahia
49%
Draw
28%
Internacional
23%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 474 | Accurate passes | 344 |
Bahia vs Internacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bahia vs Internacional
| Probability | Bahia | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 30.9% | 19.8% |
| Market | 49.4% | 26.5% | 24.1% |
| Final | 49.4% | 27.6% | 23.0% |
| Edge | -0.2% | +4.5% | -4.2% |
Why Bahia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.75.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
63%
3+ goals
35%
No goals
14%
Bahia and Internacional expected goals
Bahia
1.33
Internacional
0.75
Total expected goals: 2.08
Bahia and Internacional attack and defence ratings
Bahia
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Internacional
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bahia vs Internacional: result vs prediction
Bahia 3 – 2 Internacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bahia vs Internacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 49.4% | 2.02 | -0.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 49.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Internacional | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.1% |
| No | 59.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bahia win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 0-0 | 13.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
Bahia vs Internacional stats
Bahia and Internacional recent form
| Bahia |
WDDDDD |
| Internacional |
DDDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bahia and Internacional going into this match
Bahia record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional record
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Bahia wins
3Draws
4Internacional wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Internacional | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Internacional | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-22 | Bahia | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-28 | Internacional | Bahia | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-03 | Bahia | Internacional | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-27 | Bahia | Internacional | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-13 | Internacional | Bahia | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-19 | Bahia | Internacional | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-28 | Internacional | Bahia | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-26 | Internacional | Bahia | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bahia vs Internacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 26.5%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.64 | 3.99 |
| 888Sport | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.54 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.72 | 4.01 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.18 | 3.53 |
| Unibet | 1.92 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.90 ▼ -0.01
X
3.55 ▲ +0.11
2
3.90 —
15 snapshots recorded, from .