Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 25
Gremio
vs
Chapecoense-sc
3 – 1 Full time
| -5′ | Walter Kannemann | ||
| 15′ | Mauricio Garcez | ||
| 18′ | Gustavo Martins | ||
| 28′ | C. Pavon | ||
| 40′ | Marlon | ||
| 46′ | MarlonPedro Gabriel | ||
| 52′ | J. EnamoradoJoao Pedro | ||
| 52′ | M. BraithwaiteCarlos Vinicius | ||
| 55′ | Eduardo Doma | ||
| 56′ | Gustavo Martins | ||
| 61′ | Bruno MatiasM. Carvalho | ||
| 61′ | Mauricio GarcezF. Rossi | ||
| 65′ | Danilo BarbosaBernardo Zortea | ||
| 71′ | Bruno Pacheco | ||
| 75′ | Bruno PachecoFernando | ||
| 76′ | F. AmuzuTete | ||
| 80′ | Giovanni AugustoEnio | ||
| 80′ | MarcinhoD. Borrero | ||
| 90′ | Tetê |
Gremio
58%
Draw
25%
Chapecoense-sc
18%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 32 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 7 | Saves | 2 |
| 484 | Accurate passes | 417 |
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc
| Probability | Gremio | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 29.2% | 22.1% |
| Market | 60.7% | 23.2% | 16.0% |
| Final | 57.7% | 24.7% | 17.5% |
| Edge | -12.1% | +6.0% | +6.1% |
Why Gremio
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
69%
3+ goals
42%
No goals
11%
Gremio and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
Gremio
1.45
Chapecoense-sc
0.90
Total expected goals: 2.34
Gremio and Chapecoense-sc attack and defence ratings
Gremio
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Chapecoense-sc
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.25 +25%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc: result vs prediction
Gremio 3 – 1 Chapecoense-sc
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 57.7% | 1.73 | -12.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 57.7% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.5% |
| No | 53.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gremio win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc stats
Gremio and Chapecoense-sc recent form
| Gremio |
DLLWWD |
| Chapecoense-sc |
WDLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gremio and Chapecoense-sc going into this match
Gremio record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 2 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Gremio wins
4Draws
2Chapecoense-sc wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Gremio | Chapecoense-sc | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chapecoense-sc | Gremio | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2022-07-26 | Chapecoense-sc | Gremio | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-15 | Gremio | Chapecoense-sc | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-20 | Chapecoense-sc | Gremio | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2021-08-09 | Gremio | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2019-11-10 | Chapecoense-sc | Gremio | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2019-08-05 | Gremio | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2018-11-18 | Gremio | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2018-07-29 | Chapecoense-sc | Gremio | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.7%, draw 23.2%, away 16.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.52 | 4.00 | 6.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.17 | 5.97 |
| 888Sport | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.15 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.05 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.20 | 6.05 |
| SBO | 1.48 | 3.62 | 5.13 |
| Unibet | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.53 ▲ +0.03
X
4.00 ▼ -0.15
2
5.80 ▼ -0.70
15 snapshots recorded, from .