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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate

1 – 2 Full time

13′Franco Nicola
22′Tobías Andrada
45′Iván TesuriJulián Fernández
45′Leandro DíazRamiro Ruiz Rodriguez
53′Tobías AndradaMauro Arambarri
65′Julián Fernández
72′Sebastián DriussiJuan Cruz Meza
73′Tomás Ezequiel GalvánLucas Beltran
73′Nicolás LaméndolaPedro Alexis Canelo
73′Leonel Di Plácido
76′Mauro Arambarri
76′Julio César Falcioni Capdevila
82′Marcos Acuña
83′Clever Domingo Ferreira Ñamandu
87′Lautaro GodoyGabriel Compagnucci
90′Thiago Almada
90′Ángel CorreaRafael Borré

Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro, San Miguel de TucumanReferee: Carlos Andres Gariano, Argentina

Atletico Tucuman 32%
Draw 30%
River Plate 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 18
1 Shots on target 5
25 Possession % 75
1 Corners 5
7 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 3
3 Saves 0
145 Accurate passes 652

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico TucumanDrawRiver Plate
Model53.2%30.4%16.4%
Market25.0%30.4%44.6%
Final32.0%30.4%37.6%
Edge+28.2%-0.0%-28.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Tucum ↓ / River Plate → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 1 17% 13% 2 13% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 15%

Atletico Tucuman and River Plate expected goals

Atletico Tucuman 1.36
River Plate 0.64

Total expected goals: 2.01

Atletico Tucuman and River Plate attack and defence ratings

Atletico Tucuman

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.55 -45%

River Plate

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate: result vs prediction

Atletico Tucuman 1 – 2 River Plate

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 River Plate 37.6% 2.66 -28.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.4% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 63.5% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.6% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 83.6% 1.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Tucuman32.0%
Draw30.4%
River Plate37.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.6%
Under 2.567.4%
Both teams to scoreYes36.5%
No63.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.4%
12 (either side)69.6%
X2 (draw or away)68.0%
Handicap -1River Plate win4.5%
Push (exactly one goal)11.8%
Loss83.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-017.1%
0-014.6%
1-113.0%

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate stats

Atletico Tucuman and River Plate recent form

newest first
Atletico Tucuman WDDWWL
River Plate WWDDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Tucuman and River Plate going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Tucuman record

  • They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

River Plate record

  • They have won 15 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Atletico Tucuman wins 5Draws 3River Plate wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-03River PlateAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2025-09-21Atletico TucumanRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina2-0
2025-03-09River PlateAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2024-09-14River PlateAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina4-1
2024-02-15Atletico TucumanRiver PlateCopa de la Liga Profesional0-0
2023-09-22River PlateAtletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional1-0
2023-04-29Atletico TucumanRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2022-06-11River PlateAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2022-04-24River PlateAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2021-12-11Atletico TucumanRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 30.4%, away 44.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.00 3.10 2.00
1xBet 3.78 3.12 2.14
888Sport 3.70 3.00 2.05
Bet365 4.00 3.00 2.10
BetVictor 3.70 3.10 2.15
Betano 3.85 3.10 2.15
Betfair 3.90 3.10 2.00
Dafabet 3.70 3.00 2.11
Marathonbet 3.72 3.06 2.10
SBO 3.58 2.94 2.04
Unibet 3.90 3.15 2.02
William Hill 3.60 2.90 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.75 ▼ -0.40
X 3.08 ▲ +0.09
2 2.10 ▲ +0.05

14 snapshots recorded, from .