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Copa Argentina · Full time ·Quarter-finals

Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman

1 – 1 Full time

39′G. Rios
45′L. Ingolotti
45′A. Arce
54′L. BuccaJ. M. Elordi
72′N. LamendolaA. Canelo
72′R. TesuriR. Ruiz
78′A. Arce
79′G. RiosF. Sartori
84′N. FrancoR. Granillo
87′M. FernandezD. Crego
87′M. SalasI. Villalba
90′A. Canelo

Estadio Regional de Los Andes, Los AndesReferee: J. Balino

Independ. Rivadavia 42%
Draw 32%
Atletico Tucuman 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndepend. RivadaviaDrawAtletico Tucuman
Model43.5%32.1%24.4%
Market41.3%32.2%26.5%
Final41.8%32.2%26.0%
Edge+2.2%-0.1%-2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Independ. Rivadavia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices Independ. Rivadavia below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independ. Riva ↓ / Atletico Tucum → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 9% 1 14% 14% 2 9% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 63%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Independ. Rivadavia and Atletico Tucuman expected goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1.22
Atletico Tucuman 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.07

Independ. Rivadavia and Atletico Tucuman attack and defence ratings

Independ. Rivadavia

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Atletico Tucuman

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.60 -40%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman: result vs prediction

Independ. Rivadavia 1 – 1 Atletico Tucuman

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Quarter-finals fixtures

Copa Argentina

Before and after this match

Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independ. Rivadavia 41.8% 2.39 +2.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 65.8% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score No 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.5% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independ. Rivadavia41.8%
Draw32.2%
Atletico Tucuman26.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534.2%
Under 2.565.8%
Both teams to scoreYes41.6%
No58.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.0%
12 (either side)67.8%
X2 (draw or away)58.2%
Handicap -1Independ. Rivadavia win19.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss56.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
1-014.1%
0-013.9%

Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman stats

Independ. Rivadavia and Atletico Tucuman recent form

newest first
Independ. Rivadavia WLWWDD
Atletico Tucuman LWDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Independ. Rivadavia wins 4Draws 4Atletico Tucuman wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-26Atletico TucumanIndepend. RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2026-01-24Independ. RivadaviaAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2024-08-04Atletico TucumanIndepend. RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2024-03-17Atletico TucumanIndepend. RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional2-2
2015-09-06Independ. RivadaviaAtletico TucumanPrimera Nacional1-3
2015-04-19Atletico TucumanIndepend. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional2-0
2014-10-25Atletico TucumanIndepend. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional1-0
2014-08-30Independ. RivadaviaAtletico TucumanPrimera Nacional0-0
2014-04-13Atletico TucumanIndepend. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional1-1
2013-10-13Independ. RivadaviaAtletico TucumanPrimera Nacional2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 31.9%, away 26.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.00 3.30 3.75
1xBet 2.29 2.82 3.74
Bet365 2.25 3.00 3.50
BetVictor 2.20 3.00 3.40
Betano 2.25 2.92 3.80
Betfair 2.20 3.00 3.40
Marathonbet 2.23 2.75 3.64
Pinnacle 2.26 2.78 3.81
SBO 2.01 2.87 3.08
Unibet 2.12 3.25 3.55
William Hill 2.30 2.88 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▲ +0.23
X 2.88 ▼ -0.26
2 3.50 ▼ -0.35

24 snapshots recorded, from .