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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi

4 – 3 Full time

10′Gonzalo Rios
13′Tomás Fernández
19′Jose Ignacio Florentin
26′Martín García
45′Nicolás Cordero
45′Alex Arce
54′Maximiliano Salas
59′Lucas Castro
63′Mateo Sebastián ValesRodrigo González
63′Felipe AnsoMatias Godoy
68′Gonzalo RiosMatías Fernández
68′Fabrizio Sartori PrietoLuis Sequeira
69′Nicolás CorderoAndrés Chávez
75′Alex Arce
76′Elías LópezSantiago Moya
76′Lucas CastroBautista Dadín
84′Tomas BottariLeonel Bucca
89′Maximiliano SalasDiego Crego
89′Juan ElordiLuis Ángel Díaz Cuesta
90′Diego Crego
90′Joaquín Pombo Streinberger
90′Alex Arce

Estadio Bautista Gargantini, MendozaReferee: Dario Herrera, Argentina

Independ. Rivadavia 64%
Draw 23%
Aldosivi 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 25
8 Shots on target 9
54 Possession % 46
2 Corners 7
13 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1
6 Saves 4
307 Accurate passes 225

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndepend. RivadaviaDrawAldosivi
Model59.3%23.7%17.1%
Market65.1%22.9%12.0%
Final63.6%23.1%13.3%
Edge-5.9%+0.8%+5.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Independ. Rivadavia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independ. Riva ↓ / Aldosivi → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 11% 2 10% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Independ. Rivadavia and Aldosivi expected goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1.94
Aldosivi 0.96

Total expected goals: 2.90

Independ. Rivadavia and Aldosivi attack and defence ratings

Independ. Rivadavia

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Aldosivi

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi: result vs prediction

Independ. Rivadavia 4 – 3 Aldosivi

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independ. Rivadavia 63.6% 1.57 -5.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.9% 1.85 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.7% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.7% 2.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independ. Rivadavia63.6%
Draw23.1%
Aldosivi13.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%
Both teams to scoreYes53.9%
No46.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.7%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)36.4%
Handicap -1Independ. Rivadavia win36.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss40.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-010.3%
2-19.9%

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi stats

Independ. Rivadavia and Aldosivi recent form

newest first
Independ. Rivadavia LWWDDL
Aldosivi WLLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independ. Rivadavia and Aldosivi going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independ. Rivadavia record

  • They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Aldosivi record

  • They have won 1 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Independ. Rivadavia wins 3Draws 1Aldosivi wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-26AldosiviIndepend. RivadaviaCopa Argentina0-2
2026-05-03AldosiviIndepend. RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2025-11-01AldosiviIndepend. RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina3-1
2025-04-23Independ. RivadaviaAldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2023-06-17Independ. RivadaviaAldosiviPrimera Nacional2-1
2023-02-10AldosiviIndepend. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional1-2
2017-12-09AldosiviIndepend. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional0-0
2014-04-06Independ. RivadaviaAldosiviPrimera Nacional2-2
2013-10-05AldosiviIndepend. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional0-1
2013-03-23Independ. RivadaviaAldosiviPrimera Nacional2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.6%, draw 22.9%, away 12.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.48 3.80 7.80
1xBet 1.46 4.17 7.90
888Sport 1.44 3.80 7.00
Bet365 1.45 4.10 8.50
BetVictor 1.44 4.20 7.50
Betano 1.50 4.25 8.25
Betfair 1.40 4.10 7.50
Dafabet 1.45 3.90 7.40
Marathonbet 1.43 4.10 7.80
Pinnacle 1.46 4.38 8.11
SBO 1.42 3.92 6.95
Unibet 1.52 3.80 7.00
William Hill 1.44 4.00 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.06
X 4.10 ▲ +0.35
2 7.80 ▼ -0.10

18 snapshots recorded, from .