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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 8

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia

3 – 1 Full time

17′Matías Fernández
29′Alex Arce
30′G. Montiel
38′Iván Villalba
40′José Florentín
43′Nicolás Otamendi
54′T. Galvan
57′G. RiosL. Sequeira
57′F. SartoriL. Diaz
66′A. OsellaA. Vigo
68′A. Arce
70′Lucas Martínez Quarta
77′S. DriussiJ. Meza
77′T. AndradaL. Beltran
80′T. Galvan
81′M. AcunaF. Ortega
89′A. CorreaM. Arambarri
89′T. GalvanR. Borre
89′T. BottariV. Ramis

Estadio Monumental, Buenos AiresReferee: Nicolas Ramirez, Argentina

River Plate 49%
Draw 28%
Independ. Rivadavia 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 10
10 Shots on target 5
58 Possession % 42
2 Corners 0
11 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 5
4 Saves 6
404 Accurate passes 262

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRiver PlateDrawIndepend. Rivadavia
Model33.6%30.4%35.9%
Market54.8%27.4%17.9%
Final49.5%28.1%22.4%
Edge-21.1%+3.1%+18.1%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

River Plate ↓ / Independ. Riva → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 10% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

River Plate and Independ. Rivadavia expected goals

River Plate 1.16
Independ. Rivadavia 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.38

River Plate and Independ. Rivadavia attack and defence ratings

River Plate

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Independ. Rivadavia

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia: result vs prediction

River Plate 3 – 1 Independ. Rivadavia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 River Plate 49.5% 2.02 -21.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.6% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 50.4% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.6% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.4% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2River Plate49.5%
Draw28.1%
Independ. Rivadavia22.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%
Both teams to scoreYes49.6%
No50.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.6%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)50.5%
Handicap -1River Plate win14.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss66.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-010.6%
0-19.9%

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia stats

River Plate and Independ. Rivadavia recent form

newest first
River Plate WDDDWL
Independ. Rivadavia WWDDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

River Plate and Independ. Rivadavia going into this match

league record before kick-off

River Plate record

  • They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independ. Rivadavia record

  • They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1River Plate wins 2Draws 2Independ. Rivadavia wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-03Independ. RivadaviaRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2025-10-25Independ. RivadaviaRiver PlateCopa Argentina0-0
2024-11-22Independ. RivadaviaRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2024-03-22Independ. RivadaviaRiver PlateFriendlies Clubs4-0
2024-03-07River PlateIndepend. RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.6%, draw 27.5%, away 18.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.73 3.35 5.20
1xBet 1.74 3.48 5.24
Bet365 1.73 3.40 5.50
BetVictor 1.70 3.50 5.50
Betano 1.75 3.40 5.30
Betfair 1.75 3.40 4.75
Dafabet 1.71 3.35 5.00
Marathonbet 1.71 3.42 5.15
SBO 1.65 3.15 4.46
Unibet 1.66 3.60 5.40
William Hill 1.70 3.30 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.71 ▼ -0.04
X 3.42 ▲ +0.12
2 5.24 ▲ +0.22

12 snapshots recorded, from .