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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 10

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente

1 – 2 Full time

15′Lucas Menossi
21′C. AvilaI. Morales
37′Leonardo Godoy
45′J. PalaisM. Abaldo
46′F. ZabalaR. Martino
49′M. Estigarribia
52′S. Montiel
57′M. Meza
59′J. MosqueiraI. Malcorra
59′B. CuelloM. Luna Diale
65′Cristian Tarragona
68′M. EstigarribiaE. Ramirez
70′Iván Marcone
71′Juan Miguel Arrayago
75′Matías Abaldo
79′M. Perez CurciD. Martinez
80′L. AyalaB. Pitton
80′J. PalaciosM. Aguirre
80′S. MontielL. Millan

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa FeReferee: L. Lobo Medina

Union Santa Fe 42%
Draw 30%
Independiente 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 4
56 Possession % 44
6 Corners 1
11 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0
2 Saves 3
277 Accurate passes 235

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union Santa Fe vs Independiente

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUnion Santa FeDrawIndependiente
Model54.1%23.9%22.0%
Market37.7%31.8%30.5%
Final41.8%29.8%28.4%
Edge+16.4%-7.8%-8.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Union Santa Fe

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Union Santa Fe below the model: +16.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Union Santa Fe ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Union Santa Fe and Independiente expected goals

Union Santa Fe 1.95
Independiente 1.19

Total expected goals: 3.14

Union Santa Fe and Independiente attack and defence ratings

Union Santa Fe

Attack 1.51 +51%
Defence 1.44 +44%

Independiente

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente: result vs prediction

Union Santa Fe 1 – 2 Independiente

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Union Santa Fe 41.8% 2.39 +16.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.8% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.7% 1.65 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.6% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.9% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Union Santa Fe41.8%
Draw29.8%
Independiente28.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.8%
Under 2.539.2%
Both teams to scoreYes60.7%
No39.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.6%
12 (either side)70.2%
X2 (draw or away)58.2%
Handicap -1Union Santa Fe win32.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss45.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
2-19.8%
2-08.2%

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente stats

Union Santa Fe and Independiente recent form

newest first
Union Santa Fe LWWWLL
Independiente DWLDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union Santa Fe and Independiente going into this match

league record before kick-off

Union Santa Fe record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

1Union Santa Fe wins 3Draws 5Independiente wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-22Union Santa FeIndependienteCopa Argentina0-2
2026-03-10IndependienteUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina4-4
2024-11-06IndependienteUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina3-0
2023-06-24Union Santa FeIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina3-0
2022-09-19Union Santa FeIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2021-10-26IndependienteUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2021-04-25Union Santa FeIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2019-10-30Union Santa FeIndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina2-2
2019-02-09IndependienteUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 31.1%, away 30.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.49 3.02 3.12
Bet365 2.55 2.90 3.10
BetVictor 2.45 3.10 3.00
Betano 2.47 3.10 3.10
Betfair 2.40 3.00 3.00
Marathonbet 2.44 2.98 3.04
Pinnacle 2.51 3.08 3.17
SBO 2.28 2.82 2.80
William Hill 2.38 2.90 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.51 ▲ +0.26
X 2.98 ▼ -0.03
2 3.10 ▼ -0.33

18 snapshots recorded, from .