Garuda Lions
Today
Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

3 – 0 Full time

7′Facundo Ezequiel Herrera
17′Leandro Paredes
21′Joaquin Mosqueira
22′Lautaro Di Lollo
39′Cristian Tarragona
45′Victor Malcorra
45′Joaquin MosqueiraLucas Menossi
60′Miguel MerentielEnner Valencia
61′Alan VelascoCarlos Palacios
61′Sebastián VillaLeonel Flores
64′Brahian CuelloMarcelo Estigarriba
66′Lucas Ayala
72′Mauro Luna Diale
73′Julián PalaciosErik Ramirez
73′Lucas AyalaBruno Pittón
83′Leonel Flores
84′Santiago AscacibarÁngel Romero
86′Leandro ParedesWilliams Alarcón
90′Leonel Flores

Alberto J. Armando, Buenos AiresReferee: Sebastian Nicolas Martinez

Boca Juniors 63%
Draw 23%
Union Santa Fe 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

25 Shots 4
7 Shots on target 1
69 Possession % 31
2 Corners 1
7 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 4
612 Accurate passes 229

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBoca JuniorsDrawUnion Santa Fe
Model69.6%17.6%12.8%
Market60.9%24.2%14.9%
Final63.1%22.6%14.4%
Edge+8.7%-6.6%-2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Boca Juniors

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Boca Juniors below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Boca Juniors ↓ / Union Santa Fe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 8% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 9% 10% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe expected goals

Boca Juniors 2.63
Union Santa Fe 1.10

Total expected goals: 3.73

Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe attack and defence ratings

Boca Juniors

Attack 1.59 +59%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Union Santa Fe

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 1.45 +45%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe: result vs prediction

Boca Juniors 3 – 0 Union Santa Fe

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Boca Juniors 63.1% 1.59 +8.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.0% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.5% 1.60 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.6% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Boca Juniors win 49.0% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Boca Juniors63.1%
Draw22.6%
Union Santa Fe14.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.0%
Under 2.528.0%
Both teams to scoreYes62.5%
No37.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.6%
12 (either side)77.4%
X2 (draw or away)36.9%
Handicap -1Boca Juniors win49.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss30.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.1%
2-08.3%
3-18.0%

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe stats

Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe recent form

newest first
Boca Juniors WWDWWD
Union Santa Fe LLWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe going into this match

league record before kick-off

Boca Juniors record

  • They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Union Santa Fe record

  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Boca Juniors wins 5Draws 3Union Santa Fe wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-16Union Santa FeBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2025-07-18Boca JuniorsUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2025-01-29Union Santa FeBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2024-11-21Boca JuniorsUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2024-03-06Union Santa FeBoca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional1-0
2023-10-21Boca JuniorsUnion Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional2-1
2023-07-06Union Santa FeBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2022-06-25Boca JuniorsUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2021-07-16Union Santa FeBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2021-04-11Union Santa FeBoca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.9%, draw 24.2%, away 14.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.55 3.98 6.33
Bet365 1.57 3.60 7.00
BetVictor 1.53 3.90 6.50
Betano 1.60 3.95 6.90
Betfair 1.50 4.00 6.00
Marathonbet 1.52 3.90 6.20
Pinnacle 1.56 3.99 6.55
SBO 1.50 3.60 5.51
William Hill 1.55 3.70 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.55 ▼ -0.08
X 3.90 ▲ +0.38
2 6.33 ▲ +0.55

24 snapshots recorded, from .