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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.

1 – 1 Full time

5′Juan Elordi
23′Matías Fernández
45′Luciano GomezEzequiel Bonifacio
51′Ignacio Miramon
62′Ezequiel BonifacioIván Villalba
66′Maximiliano ZalazarFranco Ramón Torres
66′Mateo SeoaneRodrigo Agustín Colazo
70′Luis SequeiraGonzalo Rios
70′Pedro Silva TorrejónMatías Melluso
80′Lucas JansonMarcelo Torres
80′Bautista Barros SchelottoAlexis Steimbach
81′Matías FernándezLeonel Bucca
81′Fabrizio Sartori PrietoAlessandro Riep
86′Rodrigo Agustín Colazo
90′Sheyko Darko Studer
90′Agustin Auzmendi

Estadio Bautista Gargantini, MendozaReferee: Brian Ferreyra

Independ. Rivadavia 47%
Draw 28%
Gimnasia L.P. 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
5 Corners 3
8 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 0
3 Saves 5
290 Accurate passes 339

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndepend. RivadaviaDrawGimnasia L.P.
Model51.3%24.6%24.1%
Market45.8%29.1%25.1%
Final47.2%28.0%24.9%
Edge+5.6%-4.5%-1.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Independ. Rivadavia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Independ. Rivadavia below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independ. Riva ↓ / Gimnasia L.P. → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. expected goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1.88
Gimnasia L.P. 1.24

Total expected goals: 3.12

Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. attack and defence ratings

Independ. Rivadavia

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Gimnasia L.P.

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.: result vs prediction

Independ. Rivadavia 1 – 1 Gimnasia L.P.

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independ. Rivadavia 47.2% 2.12 +5.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.4% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.3% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.8% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independ. Rivadavia47.2%
Draw28.0%
Gimnasia L.P.24.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%
Both teams to scoreYes61.3%
No38.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.1%
12 (either side)72.0%
X2 (draw or away)52.8%
Handicap -1Independ. Rivadavia win29.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss48.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.7%
2-07.8%

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. stats

Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. recent form

newest first
Independ. Rivadavia WDWLWW
Gimnasia L.P. DDWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P. going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independ. Rivadavia record

  • They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gimnasia L.P. record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

4Independ. Rivadavia wins 2Draws 1Gimnasia L.P. wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15Gimnasia L.P.Independ. RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina2-3
2024-07-18Independ. RivadaviaGimnasia L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina1-0
2024-01-30Gimnasia L.P.Independ. RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional2-3
2013-03-29Gimnasia L.P.Independ. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional3-0
2012-09-29Independ. RivadaviaGimnasia L.P.Primera Nacional1-1
2012-05-12Independ. RivadaviaGimnasia L.P.Primera Nacional2-1
2011-11-12Gimnasia L.P.Independ. RivadaviaPrimera Nacional0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.8%, draw 29.1%, away 25.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.07 3.24 3.82
Bet365 2.10 3.10 3.90
BetVictor 2.05 3.25 3.75
Betano 2.15 3.30 3.90
Betfair 2.00 3.30 3.60
Marathonbet 2.03 3.18 3.74
Pinnacle 2.08 3.32 3.86
SBO 2.06 2.91 3.31
William Hill 2.00 3.10 3.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.06 ▲ +0.39
X 3.24 ▼ -0.26
2 3.75 ▼ -1.45

34 snapshots recorded, from .