Gimnasia L.P.
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia L.P.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman
| Probability | Gimnasia L.P. | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.2% | 28.7% | 31.2% |
| Market | 49.2% | 28.8% | 22.0% |
| Final | 47.0% | 28.8% | 24.3% |
| Edge | -9.1% | -0.1% | +9.2% |
Why Gimnasia L.P.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman match preview
Gimnasia L.P. faces Atletico Tucuman in a Liga Profesional Argentina matchup on October 9, 2026. According to our model, Gimnasia L.P. holds a 47% probability of winning, while a draw is at 29% and Atletico Tucuman at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Gimnasia L.P., with an expected goals tally of 1.40 for them and 1.21 for Atletico Tucuman.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Gimnasia L.P. recording three draws followed by two wins and one loss, while Atletico Tucuman has two losses, one draw, one win, and another draw in their last five matches. Historically, the head-to-head shows an even split, with both teams winning five times in their last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia L.P.
Atletico Tucuman
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Aldosivi v Sarmiento Junin — match page
- Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors — team news & stats
- Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats
- Barracas Central vs Huracan
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Estudiantes L.P. — match page
- Tigre v Banfield — match page
- River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Before and after this match
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 47.0% | 2.13 | -9.1% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 47.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Atletico Tucuman | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia L.P. win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman stats
Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman recent form
| Gimnasia L.P. |
DDDWWL |
| Atletico Tucuman |
LLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman season so far
Gimnasia L.P. record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Tucuman record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Atletico Tucuman | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Gimnasia L.P. | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-24 | Atletico Tucuman | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Gimnasia L.P. | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-23 | Atletico Tucuman | Gimnasia L.P. | Copa Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Atletico Tucuman | Gimnasia L.P. | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 3-2 |
| 2023-11-11 | Gimnasia L.P. | Atletico Tucuman | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 1-2 |
| 2023-07-12 | Atletico Tucuman | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-10 | Atletico Tucuman | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2022-04-08 | Atletico Tucuman | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 28.8%, away 22.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.34 | 4.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.94 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.28 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.41 | 4.41 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 3.09 | 3.86 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
20 snapshots recorded, from .