Liga Profesional Argentina
·
Full time
·Clausura - 12
Aldosivi
vs
Sarmiento Junin
1 – 3 Full time
Aldosivi
38%
Draw
29%
Sarmiento Junin
33%
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
| Probability | Aldosivi | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 24.0% | 32.9% |
| Market | 36.9% | 30.4% | 32.7% |
| Final | 38.4% | 28.8% | 32.7% |
| Edge | +6.1% | -6.4% | +0.3% |
Why Aldosivi
- The market prices Aldosivi below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
68%
No goals
4%
Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin expected goals
Aldosivi
1.86
Sarmiento Junin
1.62
Total expected goals: 3.48
Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin attack and defence ratings
Aldosivi
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
1.42 +42%
Sarmiento Junin
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
1.47 +47%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin: result vs prediction
Aldosivi 1 – 3 Sarmiento Junin
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Gimnasia L.P. v Atletico Tucuman — match page
- Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors — team news & stats
- Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats
- Barracas Central vs Huracan
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Estudiantes L.P. — match page
- Tigre v Banfield — match page
- River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Before and after this match
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aldosivi | 38.4% | 2.60 | +6.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aldosivi | 38.4% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Sarmiento Junin | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aldosivi win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin stats
Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin recent form
| Aldosivi |
LWLWLL |
| Sarmiento Junin |
LDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin going into this match
Aldosivi record
- They have won 2 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
Sarmiento Junin record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Aldosivi wins
3Draws
5Sarmiento Junin wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Sarmiento Junin | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Sarmiento Junin | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Aldosivi | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-2 |
| 2022-09-03 | Aldosivi | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2021-10-09 | Sarmiento Junin | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-0 |
| 2018-03-24 | Sarmiento Junin | Aldosivi | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2016-12-17 | Sarmiento Junin | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-2 |
| 2015-03-02 | Sarmiento Junin | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-2 |
| 2014-05-03 | Sarmiento Junin | Aldosivi | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2013-11-03 | Aldosivi | Sarmiento Junin | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.9%, draw 30.4%, away 32.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.08 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.13 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.05 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.02 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.18 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 2.99 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.55 ▼ -0.25
X
3.09 ▲ +0.08
2
2.88 ▲ +0.26
16 snapshots recorded, from .