Sarmiento Junin
vs
River Plate
Garuda Lions Prediction: River Plate
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
| Probability | Sarmiento Junin | Draw | River Plate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.7% | 24.2% | 38.1% |
| Market | 16.9% | 28.2% | 54.8% |
| Final | 22.1% | 27.2% | 50.6% |
| Edge | +20.8% | -4.1% | -16.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate match preview
Sarmiento Junin faces River Plate in a Liga Profesional Argentina matchup with both teams showing competitive form. Sarmiento's recent record includes two wins, a draw, and two losses, while River Plate has secured three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The model assigns a 38% probability to both teams winning, with a 24% chance of a draw, indicating a closely contested encounter.
The expected goals for the match are nearly identical, with Sarmiento Junin at 1.74 and River Plate at 1.75. There is a strong likelihood of goals, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score. Historically, River Plate has the upper hand in their last ten encounters, winning six times, while Sarmiento Junin has claimed two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sarmiento Junin and River Plate expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
Sarmiento Junin and River Plate attack and defence ratings
Sarmiento Junin
River Plate
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Huracan vs Aldosivi
- Talleres Cordoba vs Belgrano Cordoba
- Argentinos JRS vs Tigre — team news & stats
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club
- Deportivo Riestra vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — team news & stats
- Velez Sarsfield v Platense — match page
- Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats
- Banfield v Rosario Central — match page
Before and after this match
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | River Plate | 50.6% | 1.97 | -16.7% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarmiento Junin | 22.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| River Plate | 50.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% |
| No | 30.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | River Plate win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 67.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate stats
Sarmiento Junin and River Plate recent form
| Sarmiento Junin |
WLDWLW |
| River Plate |
LWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarmiento Junin and River Plate season so far
Sarmiento Junin record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
River Plate record
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | River Plate | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-12 | River Plate | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Sarmiento Junin | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-28 | River Plate | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-20 | Sarmiento Junin | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-2 |
| 2022-07-31 | River Plate | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2022-05-01 | Sarmiento Junin | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-7 |
| 2021-08-30 | Sarmiento Junin | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2017-04-23 | River Plate | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2015-02-16 | Sarmiento Junin | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.9%, draw 28.2%, away 54.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.41 | 3.35 | 1.76 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.20 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 5.80 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 3.25 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 5.30 | 3.28 | 1.72 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .