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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate

1 – 1 Full time

15′Julián Contrera
61′Pablo Daniel Magnin
69′Julián Contrera
69′Julian MavillaElián Giménez
69′Jhon RenteríaJonathan Herrera
70′Tobías Andrada
71′Gonzalo Montiel
72′Julián ContreraGaston Gonzalez
72′Tomás Ezequiel GalvánLautaro Pereyra
73′Marcos AcuñaFrancisco Ortega
82′Fausto Vera
84′Sebastián DriussiLucas Beltran
89′Manuel García
90′Santiago SalleAgustín Nadruz
90′Junior MarabelPablo Daniel Magnin

Estadio Eva Peron, Hu NingReferee: Sebastian Zunino

Sarmiento Junin 22%
Draw 26%
River Plate 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 22
4 Shots on target 8
27 Possession % 73
5 Corners 9
20 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 1
7 Saves 3
97 Accurate passes 436

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySarmiento JuninDrawRiver Plate
Model39.7%25.0%35.3%
Market15.6%25.9%58.5%
Final21.6%25.7%52.7%
Edge+6.0%-0.2%-5.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why River Plate

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sarmiento Juni ↓ / River Plate → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 8% 2 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Sarmiento Junin and River Plate expected goals

Sarmiento Junin 1.70
River Plate 1.60

Total expected goals: 3.30

Sarmiento Junin and River Plate attack and defence ratings

Sarmiento Junin

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 1.40 +40%

River Plate

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: result vs prediction

Sarmiento Junin 1 – 1 River Plate

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 River Plate 52.7% 1.90 -5.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.1% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.2% 1.51 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.4% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.7% 1.55 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sarmiento Junin21.6%
Draw25.7%
River Plate52.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
Both teams to scoreYes66.2%
No33.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.3%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)78.4%
Handicap -1River Plate win17.8%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss64.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
2-18.5%
1-28.0%

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate stats

Sarmiento Junin and River Plate recent form

newest first
Sarmiento Junin WLDWLW
River Plate WLWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sarmiento Junin and River Plate going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sarmiento Junin record

  • They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

River Plate record

  • They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Sarmiento Junin wins 2Draws 6River Plate wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15River PlateSarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina2-0
2025-10-12River PlateSarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2025-04-05Sarmiento JuninRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2024-07-28River PlateSarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2023-03-20Sarmiento JuninRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina0-2
2022-07-31River PlateSarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2022-05-01Sarmiento JuninRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina0-7
2021-08-30Sarmiento JuninRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina1-2
2017-04-23River PlateSarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2015-02-16Sarmiento JuninRiver PlateLiga Profesional Argentina1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.6%, draw 25.9%, away 58.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.02 3.59 1.64
Bet365 7.00 3.50 1.60
BetVictor 6.00 3.70 1.60
Betano 6.90 3.75 1.62
Betfair 6.00 3.70 1.57
Dafabet 5.80 3.65 1.60
Marathonbet 5.90 3.52 1.61
Pinnacle 6.50 3.87 1.60
SBO 5.32 3.40 1.60
William Hill 5.50 3.40 1.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.00 ▲ +0.50
X 3.62 ▲ +0.32
2 1.60 ▼ -0.10

13 snapshots recorded, from .