Garuda Lions
Today
Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central

2 – 3 Full time

34′Nicolás Laméndola
35′Nicolás Laméndola
37′Facundo Bruera
45′Rafael BarriosEnzo Taborda
45′Facundo BrueraNicolas Orsini
45′Rodrigo BogarinTomás Lavezzi
58′Enzo Taborda
71′Leonel Di PlácidoMaximiliano Villa
71′Nicolás Demartini
74′César Leonel Vega
75′Nicolas Orsini
77′Iván TesuriGabriel Compagnucci
77′Lautaro GodoyRodrigo Granillo
83′Norberto BriascoEsteban Rolón
87′Marcelo Miño
90′Elías PereyraRodrigo Insua
90′Maximiliano Villa
90′Nicolás LaméndolaRamiro Paunero
90′Nicolas Orsini

Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro, Tucumán San MiguelReferee: Nicolas Ramirez

Atletico Tucuman 52%
Draw 31%
Barracas Central 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 9
8 Shots on target 5
41 Possession % 59
4 Corners 4
12 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 2
2 Saves 6
177 Accurate passes 309

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico TucumanDrawBarracas Central
Model54.7%33.6%11.7%
Market51.3%30.6%18.1%
Final52.2%31.4%16.5%
Edge+3.4%+3.0%-6.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Tucuman

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.40.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico Tucuman below the model: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Tucum ↓ / Barracas Centr → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 22% 1 23% 2 14% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 78%
2+ goals 48%
3+ goals 21%
No goals 22%

Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central expected goals

Atletico Tucuman 1.18
Barracas Central 0.40

Total expected goals: 1.58

Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central attack and defence ratings

Atletico Tucuman

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Barracas Central

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central: result vs prediction

Atletico Tucuman 2 – 3 Barracas Central

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Tucuman 52.2% 1.92 +3.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 78.9% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score No 76.1% 1.31 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.5% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.2% 2.21 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Tucuman52.2%
Draw31.4%
Barracas Central16.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.521.1%
Under 2.578.9%
Both teams to scoreYes23.9%
No76.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.5%
12 (either side)68.6%
X2 (draw or away)47.8%
Handicap -1Atletico Tucuman win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)29.5%
Loss45.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-023.3%
0-021.6%
2-014.3%

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central stats

Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central recent form

newest first
Atletico Tucuman LDLWDD
Barracas Central LDDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Tucuman record

  • They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Barracas Central record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3Atletico Tucuman wins 1Draws 2Barracas Central wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-16Barracas CentralAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2024-07-29Barracas CentralAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina0-2
2024-02-12Barracas CentralAtletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional2-0
2023-09-16Atletico TucumanBarracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional1-0
2023-03-19Atletico TucumanBarracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2022-08-24Atletico TucumanBarracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.3%, draw 30.6%, away 18.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.85 3.10 5.26
Bet365 1.80 3.00 5.75
BetVictor 1.83 3.13 5.25
Betano 1.90 3.10 5.70
Betfair 1.85 3.10 4.75
Marathonbet 1.81 3.04 5.15
Pinnacle 1.85 3.21 5.43
SBO 1.98 2.78 3.78
William Hill 1.83 2.90 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.85 ▼ -0.07
X 3.10 ▲ +0.10
2 5.25 ▲ +0.55

34 snapshots recorded, from .