Sarmiento Junin
vs
Barracas Central
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sarmiento Junin
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
| Probability | Sarmiento Junin | Draw | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 27.6% | 26.8% |
| Market | 41.5% | 32.0% | 26.5% |
| Final | 42.6% | 30.9% | 26.5% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -4.4% | +0.3% |
Why Sarmiento Junin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.14.
- The market prices Sarmiento Junin below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central match preview
Sarmiento Junin faces Barracas Central in an intriguing Liga Profesional Argentina matchup. According to our model, Sarmiento Junin has a 43% probability of winning, while Barracas Central stands at 27%, with a 31% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Sarmiento, with expected goals of 1.61 for Sarmiento and 1.19 for Barracas Central. Both teams are also expected to score, with a probability of 57%.
In terms of recent form, Sarmiento Junin has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Barracas Central has achieved two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. Historically, Sarmiento Junin has performed well against Barracas Central, with two wins and one draw in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central attack and defence ratings
Sarmiento Junin
Barracas Central
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo — match page
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Aldosivi
- Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate
- Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago — match page
- Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe — match page
Before and after this match
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarmiento Junin | 42.6% | 2.35 | +4.1% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarmiento Junin | 42.6% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Barracas Central | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarmiento Junin win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central stats
Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central recent form
| Sarmiento Junin |
DWLDWL |
| Barracas Central |
WWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central season so far
Sarmiento Junin record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Barracas Central record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Barracas Central | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Barracas Central | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Sarmiento Junin | Barracas Central | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.5%, draw 32.0%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 2.96 | 3.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 2.95 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 2.90 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 2.90 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 2.93 | 3.62 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 2.74 | 3.16 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .