Velez Sarsfield
vs
Gimnasia M.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Velez Sarsfield
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.
| Probability | Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.8% | 28.5% | 26.7% |
| Market | 52.7% | 27.6% | 19.7% |
| Final | 50.7% | 27.8% | 21.5% |
| Edge | -7.9% | +0.9% | +6.9% |
Why Velez Sarsfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.09.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. match preview
Velez Sarsfield faces Gimnasia M. in a Liga Profesional Argentina match with Velez holding a 51% probability of winning, compared to Gimnasia's 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Velez, with an expected goals tally of 1.48 for Velez and 1.09 for Gimnasia. Both teams have a 52% chance of scoring in the match, while there is a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored.
In terms of recent form, Velez Sarsfield has recorded a sequence of L-D-W-D-W-D, while Gimnasia M. has a record of W-L-D-L-D-W. In their last head-to-head encounter, Gimnasia emerged victorious with 1 win against Velez's 0 wins and 0 draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. attack and defence ratings
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
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- Banfield vs Argentinos JRS
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre — team news & stats
- Platense vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo — match page
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Aldosivi
Before and after this match
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velez Sarsfield | 50.7% | 1.97 | -7.9% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velez Sarsfield | 50.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Gimnasia M. | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Velez Sarsfield win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. stats
Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. recent form
| Velez Sarsfield |
LDWDWD |
| Gimnasia M. |
WLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M. season so far
Velez Sarsfield record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gimnasia M. record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Gimnasia M. | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.7%, draw 27.6%, away 19.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.41 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.55 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 3.34 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 3.55 | 4.62 |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.05 | 3.89 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .