Gimnasia M.
vs
Newells Old Boys
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia M.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys
| Probability | Gimnasia M. | Draw | Newells Old Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.9% | 33.6% | 35.5% |
| Market | 41.5% | 31.1% | 27.3% |
| Final | 38.9% | 31.8% | 29.4% |
| Edge | -10.6% | +2.4% | +8.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys match preview
Gimnasia M. faces Newells Old Boys in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with kickoff scheduled for October 12, 2026. The model indicates a 39% probability of a Gimnasia M. victory, while Newells Old Boys has a 29% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Gimnasia M., with a 12% likelihood. Expected goals are close, with Gimnasia M. at 0.95 and Newells Old Boys at 1.04.
In terms of recent form, Gimnasia M. has recorded a mix of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Newells Old Boys is in better form, having drawn four and won one of their last five outings. Historically, in their last encounter, Newells Old Boys secured a victory against Gimnasia M.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia M.
Newells Old Boys
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia M. | 38.9% | 2.57 | -10.6% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia M. | 38.9% |
| Draw | 31.8% | |
| Newells Old Boys | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.1% |
| No | 58.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia M. win | 11.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 69.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 0-1 | 12.8% |
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys stats
Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys recent form
| Gimnasia M. |
LDLDWW |
| Newells Old Boys |
DWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys season so far
Gimnasia M. record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newells Old Boys record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Newells Old Boys | Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.5%, draw 31.1%, away 27.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 3.04 | 3.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 2.98 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.07 | 3.49 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 2.80 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .