Union Santa Fe
vs
Defensa Y Justicia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Union Santa Fe
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
| Probability | Union Santa Fe | Draw | Defensa Y Justicia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.5% | 23.9% | 41.6% |
| Market | 42.3% | 29.7% | 27.9% |
| Final | 40.4% | 28.3% | 31.4% |
| Edge | -7.8% | -5.8% | +13.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia match preview
Union Santa Fe faces Defensa Y Justicia in an intriguing Liga Profesional Argentina clash. According to our model, Union Santa Fe has a 41% chance of winning, while Defensa Y Justicia stands at 31%, with a 28% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Union Santa Fe, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, as there is a 70% chance that both will score and a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Union Santa Fe has struggled with three consecutive losses followed by two wins, while Defensa Y Justicia has shown better consistency with two wins, a draw, and a loss in their last five matches. The expected goals for Union Santa Fe is 1.68, compared to 1.86 for Defensa Y Justicia, indicating a competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia attack and defence ratings
Union Santa Fe
Defensa Y Justicia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Gimnasia L.P. v Atletico Tucuman — match page
- Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors — team news & stats
- Barracas Central vs Huracan
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Estudiantes L.P. — match page
- Tigre v Banfield — match page
- River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Before and after this match
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 40.4% | 2.48 | -7.8% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 40.4% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 31.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% |
| No | 30.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union Santa Fe win | 17.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 65.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia stats
Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia recent form
| Union Santa Fe |
LLLWWW |
| Defensa Y Justicia |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia season so far
Union Santa Fe record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensa Y Justicia record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Defensa Y Justicia | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Union Santa Fe | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-14 | Defensa Y Justicia | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-15 | Defensa Y Justicia | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-10 | Defensa Y Justicia | Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-24 | Union Santa Fe | Defensa Y Justicia | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-28 | Union Santa Fe | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-14 | Defensa Y Justicia | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2022-05-02 | Union Santa Fe | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2021-11-18 | Union Santa Fe | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 29.7%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.19 | 3.49 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.12 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.25 | 3.45 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 3.07 | 3.06 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .