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Liga Profesional Argentina · Full time ·Clausura - 12

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

2 – 0 Full time

11′Lucas Robertone
19′Thiago Aguirre
34′Rodrigo Aliendro
57′Thiago AguirreDiego Valdés
59′Sasha Julian Marcich
67′Allan Steven Wlk DuréYoshan Valois
67′Lucas Agustín BesozziMatías Sepúlveda
73′Carlos Izquierdoz
74′Matias AriasDilan Godoy
74′Juan Cruz PolicellaSimón Escobar
81′Marcelino MorenoRamiro Carrera
81′Eduardo SalvioGonzalo Thomás Lobos
88′Ramiro Carrera
90′Lucas RobertoneLuca Feler
90′Elías GómezLautaro Piola
90′Diego Agustín MedinaGonzalo German Perez Corbalan
90′Tomás Marchiori

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos AiresReferee: Sebastian Nicolas Martinez

Lanus 43%
Draw 31%
Velez Sarsfield 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 3
48 Possession % 52
5 Corners 6
8 Fouls 13
4 Offsides 0
3 Saves 5
360 Accurate passes 374

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLanusDrawVelez Sarsfield
Model40.8%30.7%28.5%
Market43.7%31.3%25.0%
Final43.0%31.2%25.9%
Edge-0.7%-0.1%+0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Lanus

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lanus ↓ / Velez Sarsfiel → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 9% 1 12% 14% 2 8% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 11%

Lanus and Velez Sarsfield expected goals

Lanus 1.27
Velez Sarsfield 1.02

Total expected goals: 2.29

Lanus and Velez Sarsfield attack and defence ratings

Lanus

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Velez Sarsfield

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield: result vs prediction

Lanus 2 – 0 Velez Sarsfield

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lanus 43.0% 2.33 -0.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.8% 1.67 — —
Both teams to score No 52.6% 1.90 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.2% 1.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lanus43.0%
Draw31.2%
Velez Sarsfield25.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.2%
Under 2.559.8%
Both teams to scoreYes47.4%
No52.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.1%
12 (either side)68.8%
X2 (draw or away)57.0%
Handicap -1Lanus win18.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.9%
Loss59.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
1-011.5%
0-011.4%

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield stats

Lanus and Velez Sarsfield recent form

newest first
Lanus DWWWLD
Velez Sarsfield DWDWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lanus and Velez Sarsfield going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lanus record

  • They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Velez Sarsfield record

  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Lanus wins 3Draws 5Velez Sarsfield wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21Velez SarsfieldLanusLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2025-08-31Velez SarsfieldLanusLiga Profesional Argentina3-0
2025-05-22LanusVelez SarsfieldCopa Argentina2-0
2025-02-22LanusVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2024-11-20Velez SarsfieldLanusLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2023-07-04LanusVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-1
2022-07-21LanusVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina2-2
2022-04-02Velez SarsfieldLanusLiga Profesional Argentina3-1
2021-08-21Velez SarsfieldLanusLiga Profesional Argentina5-1
2021-04-25LanusVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 31.3%, away 25.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.18 3.00 3.84
Bet365 2.15 2.90 4.00
BetVictor 2.10 3.10 3.75
Betano 2.25 3.00 4.05
Betfair 2.10 3.00 3.60
Dafabet 2.18 3.00 3.65
Marathonbet 2.13 2.94 3.76
Pinnacle 2.18 3.10 3.95
SBO 2.00 2.85 3.35
William Hill 2.15 2.88 3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 ▼ -0.11
X 3.00 ▲ +0.10
2 3.75 ▲ +0.21

34 snapshots recorded, from .