Lanus
vs
Velez Sarsfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lanus
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield
| Probability | Lanus | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 30.7% | 28.4% |
| Market | 40.8% | 32.2% | 26.9% |
| Final | 40.8% | 31.9% | 27.3% |
| Edge | +0.0% | -1.5% | +1.5% |
Why Lanus
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield match preview
Lanus is set to face Velez Sarsfield in the Liga Profesional Argentina on October 12, 2026. The model gives Lanus a 40% chance of winning, while Velez Sarsfield has a 28% probability of securing a victory, and a draw stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Lanus, with an expected goals tally of 1.17 for Lanus and 0.99 for Velez Sarsfield.
In terms of recent form, Lanus has recorded a mix of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Velez Sarsfield, on the other hand, has been more consistent with three draws and three wins in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Lanus with two wins, one draw, and one loss against Velez Sarsfield in their last four encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lanus and Velez Sarsfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Lanus and Velez Sarsfield attack and defence ratings
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Tigre v Banfield — match page
- River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
- Rosario Central v Independ. Rivadavia — match page
- Platense vs Argentinos JRS
- Racing Club vs Belgrano Cordoba
- Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente — team news & stats
- Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lanus | 40.8% | 2.45 | +0.0% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lanus | 40.8% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Velez Sarsfield | 27.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.4% |
| No | 52.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lanus win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield stats
Lanus and Velez Sarsfield recent form
| Lanus |
DWWWLD |
| Velez Sarsfield |
DWDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lanus and Velez Sarsfield season so far
Lanus record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velez Sarsfield record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Velez Sarsfield | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Velez Sarsfield | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-22 | Lanus | Velez Sarsfield | Copa Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Lanus | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 32.2%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 2.90 | 3.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.88 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 2.90 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 2.90 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 2.84 | 3.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 2.94 | 3.57 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 2.80 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .