Gimnasia M.
vs
Platense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia M.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gimnasia M. is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gimnasia M. vs Platense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia M. vs Platense
| Probability | Gimnasia M. | Draw | Platense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 32.0% | 25.6% |
| Market | 42.3% | 31.5% | 26.3% |
| Final | 42.3% | 31.6% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +0.0% | +0.1% | -0.2% |
Why Gimnasia M.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.89.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (our 42.3% × 2.30 − 1).
Gimnasia M. vs Platense match preview
Gimnasia M. faces Platense in a Liga Profesional Argentina match with a projected probability of 39% for a Gimnasia M. victory, 31% for a draw, and 30% for a Platense win. The expected goals for Gimnasia M. stand at 1.33, while Platense is forecasted to score 0.97. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Gimnasia M., with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Gimnasia M. has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Platense has two wins, one draw, and two losses in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and both teams scoring is projected at 47%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia M. and Platense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
Gimnasia M. and Platense attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia M.
Platense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin — match page
- Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
- Banfield vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Talleres Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys — match page
- Rosario Central vs Huracan
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page
Before and after this match
Gimnasia M. vs Platense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia M. | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.0% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia M. | 42.3% |
| Draw | 31.6% | |
| Platense | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.6% |
| No | 57.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia M. win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 1-0 | 13.6% |
Gimnasia M. vs Platense stats
Gimnasia M. and Platense recent form
| Gimnasia M. |
LWLDLD |
| Platense |
LDDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia M. and Platense season so far
Gimnasia M. record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Platense record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Gimnasia M. vs Platense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Platense | Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2019-02-24 | Gimnasia M. | Platense | Primera Nacional | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia M. vs Platense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 31.5%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.01 | 3.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 2.95 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 2.95 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.00 | 3.58 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.82 | 3.16 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .