Lanus
vs
Gimnasia M.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lanus
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.69.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lanus vs Gimnasia M.
| Probability | Lanus | Draw | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.3% | 29.1% | 16.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.3% | 29.1% | 16.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lanus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. match preview
Lanus will face Gimnasia M. in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with a predicted probability of 54% for a Lanus victory, 29% for a draw, and 17% for Gimnasia M. The most likely scoreline according to the model is 1-0, with a 16% chance of occurring. Lanus has shown solid recent form, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Gimnasia M. struggles with two losses and only one win in their recent outings.
The expected goals for Lanus stand at 1.45, compared to Gimnasia M.'s 0.69, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output. Additionally, the model suggests a 36% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance that both teams will score. In their last encounter, Gimnasia M. emerged victorious, but Lanus will aim to leverage their current form to secure the win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lanus and Gimnasia M. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.15
Lanus and Gimnasia M. attack and defence ratings
Lanus
Gimnasia M.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lanus | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lanus | 54.3% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Gimnasia M. | 16.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.5% |
| No | 60.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lanus win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 45.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. stats
Lanus and Gimnasia M. recent form
| Lanus |
DWWDWW |
| Gimnasia M. |
LLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lanus and Gimnasia M. season so far
Lanus record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia M. record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lanus vs Gimnasia M. head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Gimnasia M. | Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.