Gimnasia M.
vs
Independ. Rivadavia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia M.
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyThe market prices Gimnasia M. below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia
| Probability | Gimnasia M. | Draw | Independ. Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 27.4% | 29.7% |
| Market | 34.3% | 30.1% | 35.6% |
| Final | 36.4% | 29.4% | 34.1% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -0.7% | -1.5% |
Why Gimnasia M.
- The market prices Gimnasia M. below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.9% per unit staked (our 36.4% × 2.88 − 1).
Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia match preview
Gimnasia M. faces Independ. Rivadavia in their upcoming Liga Profesional match, with probabilities indicating a 37% chance of a Gimnasia M. victory, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 34% chance for Independ. Rivadavia to win. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Gimnasia M., with an expected goals tally of 1.54 for Gimnasia M. and 1.25 for Independ. Rivadavia.
In terms of recent form, Gimnasia M. has recorded a series of mixed results with their last six matches showing two draws, two losses, and one win, while Independ. Rivadavia has fared slightly better with two wins, two draws, and two losses. The model also suggests a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia M. | 36.4% | 2.75 | +2.2% | 2.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia M. | 36.4% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia M. win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia stats
Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia recent form
| Gimnasia M. |
DLLWLD |
| Independ. Rivadavia |
WLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia season so far
Gimnasia M. record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independ. Rivadavia record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 30.1%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.13 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.05 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.72 | 3.14 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.16 | 2.67 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 2.86 | 2.45 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .