Boca Juniors
vs
Defensa Y Justicia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Boca Juniors
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Boca Juniors is the favourite, not a value bet.
Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia
| Probability | Boca Juniors | Draw | Defensa Y Justicia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.5% | 28.8% | 21.7% |
| Market | 68.3% | 20.6% | 11.1% |
| Final | 63.6% | 22.7% | 13.7% |
| Edge | -4.7% | +2.0% | +2.7% |
Why Boca Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (our 63.6% × 1.40 − 1).
Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia match preview
Boca Juniors enter this match against Defensa Y Justicia with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six matches, alongside one draw and one loss. Their expected goals for this fixture stand at 1.48, indicating a solid offensive capability. In contrast, Defensa Y Justicia has shown mixed results, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six outings, and an expected goals figure of 0.90.
The probabilities suggest a favorable outcome for Boca Juniors, with a 63% chance of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23% and Defensa Y Justicia at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Additionally, there is a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are given a 47% chance of finding the net.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia attack and defence ratings
Boca Juniors
Defensa Y Justicia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — match page
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats
- Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia — team news & stats
- Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- Argentinos JRS vs Huracan
Before and after this match
Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 63.6% | 1.57 | -4.7% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 63.6% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 13.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.1% |
| No | 52.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia stats
Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia recent form
| Boca Juniors |
WWWWLD |
| Defensa Y Justicia |
DWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia season so far
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Defensa Y Justicia record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Defensa Y Justicia | Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Defensa Y Justicia | Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Boca Juniors | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.3%, draw 20.6%, away 11.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 4.60 | 9.05 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.33 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.60 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 4.50 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 4.50 | 8.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 4.75 | 8.67 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.06 | 6.95 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.20 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .