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Liga Profesional Argentina · ·Clausura - 16

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield

Garuda Lions Prediction: Velez Sarsfield

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.51.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Velez Sarsfield

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera CruzReferee: Andres Gariano

Union Santa Fe 35%
Draw 28%
Velez Sarsfield 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Velez Sarsfield wins
37%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
68%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUnion Santa FeDrawVelez Sarsfield
Model29.4%23.9%46.7%
Market37.1%29.5%33.4%
Final35.1%28.1%36.7%
Edge-1.9%-1.4%+3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Velez Sarsfield

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Velez Sarsfield below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.6% per unit staked (our 36.7% × 2.90 − 1).

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield match preview

Union Santa Fe faces Velez Sarsfield in a Liga Profesional Argentina match with both teams showing mixed recent form. Union Santa Fe's last six matches resulted in two draws and four losses, while Velez Sarsfield has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five outings. The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Union Santa Fe projected at 1.51 and Velez Sarsfield at 1.93.

The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield both at 36% to win, and a draw at 29%. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 67% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 68% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last nine head-to-head matches, Union Santa Fe has won three times, while Velez Sarsfield has claimed four victories.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Union Santa Fe ↓ / Velez Sarsfiel → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield expected goals

Union Santa Fe 1.51
Velez Sarsfield 1.93

Total expected goals: 3.44

Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield attack and defence ratings

Union Santa Fe

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Velez Sarsfield

Attack 1.54 +54%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - 16 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Velez Sarsfield 36.7% 2.72 +3.3% 2.90
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.8% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.5% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.9% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.3% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Union Santa Fe35.1%
Draw28.1%
Velez Sarsfield36.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%
Both teams to scoreYes67.5%
No32.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.3%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)64.9%
Handicap -1Velez Sarsfield win26.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss53.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
1-29.0%
2-17.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield stats

Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield recent form

newest first
Union Santa Fe DWDLLL
Velez Sarsfield DWWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield season so far

league record

Union Santa Fe record

  • They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Velez Sarsfield record

  • They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Union Santa Fe wins 2Draws 4Velez Sarsfield wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-27Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina2-2
2024-12-07Union Santa FeVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2023-07-24Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2022-08-06Union Santa FeVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina2-1
2021-09-06Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina4-0
2021-04-04Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina4-1
2020-03-09Union Santa FeVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-3
2018-11-25Union Santa FeVelez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-2
2017-11-07Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 29.5%, away 33.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.56 3.20 2.85
Bet365 2.62 3.00 2.90
BetVictor 2.50 3.20 2.75
Betano 2.60 3.20 2.82
Betfair 2.55 3.20 2.75
Dafabet 2.50 3.15 2.85
Marathonbet 2.51 3.14 2.79
Pinnacle 2.55 3.21 2.83
SBO 2.36 2.98 2.56
William Hill 2.50 3.00 2.75
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.53 ▲ +0.09
X 3.17 ▲ +0.05
2 2.80 ▼ -0.13

6 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Velez Sarsfield Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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