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Liga Profesional Argentina · ·Clausura - 16

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman

Garuda Lions Prediction: Banfield

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Banfield is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Banfield

Estadio Florencio Sola, Buenos AiresReferee: Manduca, Maximiliano

Banfield 38%
Draw 29%
Atletico Tucuman 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Banfield wins
38%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
93%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
58%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBanfieldDrawAtletico Tucuman
Model37.0%27.5%35.4%
Market38.7%29.8%31.4%
Final38.3%29.3%32.4%
Edge-0.4%-0.6%+1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 38.3% × 2.47 − 1).

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman match preview

In the upcoming Liga Profesional match, Banfield faces Atletico Tucuman with a probability of 38% for a Banfield victory, 29% for a draw, and 33% for an Atletico Tucuman win. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Banfield, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 58% chance for both teams to find the net and a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Recent form indicates Banfield's mixed results, with the last five matches yielding two draws, one win, and two losses. In contrast, Atletico Tucuman has struggled, recording one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six outings. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Banfield has secured three wins, while Atletico Tucuman has two, with five matches ending in draws.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Banfield ↓ / Atletico Tucum → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 7% 13% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Banfield and Atletico Tucuman expected goals

Banfield 1.43
Atletico Tucuman 1.39

Total expected goals: 2.82

Banfield and Atletico Tucuman attack and defence ratings

Banfield

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.40 +40%

Atletico Tucuman

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - 16 fixtures

Liga Profesional Argentina

Before and after this match

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Banfield 38.3% 2.61 -0.4% 2.47
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.6% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.7% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.0% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Banfield38.3%
Draw29.3%
Atletico Tucuman32.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%
Both teams to scoreYes58.4%
No41.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.6%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)61.7%
Handicap -1Banfield win18.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.1%
Loss63.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
2-18.5%
1-28.3%
Compare prices for this pick

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman stats

Banfield and Atletico Tucuman recent form

newest first
Banfield LDLWDD
Atletico Tucuman LDWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Banfield and Atletico Tucuman season so far

league record

Banfield record

  • They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Tucuman record

  • They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Banfield wins 5Draws 2Atletico Tucuman wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26Atletico TucumanBanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2024-07-20BanfieldAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2024-03-07Atletico TucumanBanfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional0-3
2023-10-16BanfieldAtletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional0-0
2023-03-05Atletico TucumanBanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina1-0
2022-09-06Atletico TucumanBanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-0
2022-05-10BanfieldAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina1-1
2021-09-25BanfieldAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina2-0
2020-12-15Atletico TucumanBanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina0-2
2019-10-19BanfieldAtletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 29.8%, away 31.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.46 3.22 2.98
Bet365 2.45 3.10 3.10
BetVictor 2.38 3.13 3.00
Betano 2.47 3.20 3.00
Betfair 2.45 3.20 2.90
Dafabet 2.38 3.15 3.00
Marathonbet 2.41 3.15 2.92
Pinnacle 2.44 3.18 3.01
SBO 2.19 2.90 2.86
William Hill 2.40 3.00 2.90
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.42 ▼ -0.05
X 3.15 ▲ +0.01
2 2.99 —

5 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Banfield Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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