Tigre
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tigre
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tigre is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
| Probability | Tigre | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.1% | 27.2% | 30.7% |
| Market | 49.2% | 29.3% | 21.5% |
| Final | 47.4% | 28.8% | 23.8% |
| Edge | -1.8% | -0.5% | +2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (our 47.4% × 1.95 − 1).
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin match preview
Tigre and Sarmiento Junin are set to clash in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with Tigre holding a 51% probability of winning, while Sarmiento Junin stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Tigre, with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, as the model indicates a 58% chance for both teams to score and a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Tigre has struggled, recording one win and five losses in their last six matches, while Sarmiento Junin has managed one win, two draws, and three losses in the same timeframe. The expected goals for Tigre are 1.54, compared to Sarmiento Junin's 1.29, suggesting a competitive encounter. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tigre and Sarmiento Junin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Tigre and Sarmiento Junin attack and defence ratings
Tigre
Sarmiento Junin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigre | 47.4% | 2.11 | -1.8% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigre | 47.4% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Sarmiento Junin | 23.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tigre win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin stats
Tigre and Sarmiento Junin recent form
| Tigre |
WLDLLL |
| Sarmiento Junin |
LLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tigre and Sarmiento Junin season so far
Tigre record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sarmiento Junin record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sarmiento Junin | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Sarmiento Junin | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-25 | Tigre | Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-20 | Sarmiento Junin | Tigre | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-14 | Tigre | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-04 | Sarmiento Junin | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-2 |
| 2021-01-03 | Sarmiento Junin | Tigre | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2019-10-20 | Sarmiento Junin | Tigre | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2016-12-09 | Sarmiento Junin | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 29.3%, away 21.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.24 | 4.49 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.18 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.09 | 4.59 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 2.90 | 3.59 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .