San Lorenzo
vs
Platense
Garuda Lions Prediction: San Lorenzo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — San Lorenzo is the favourite, not a value bet.
San Lorenzo vs Platense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Lorenzo vs Platense
| Probability | San Lorenzo | Draw | Platense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.9% | 34.9% | 35.2% |
| Market | 36.2% | 32.6% | 31.2% |
| Final | 34.6% | 33.2% | 32.2% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.6% | +1.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (our 34.6% × 2.63 − 1).
San Lorenzo vs Platense match preview
San Lorenzo faces Platense in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with both teams showing mixed recent form. San Lorenzo has recorded two draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Platense has three wins and three draws in the same timeframe. The expected goals for this match indicate a close contest, with San Lorenzo at 0.88 and Platense slightly ahead at 0.98.
Our model suggests a balanced matchup, assigning a 34% probability to both a San Lorenzo win and a draw, while Platense has a 32% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of San Lorenzo, occurring at a rate of 12%. Additionally, there is a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Lorenzo and Platense expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.86
San Lorenzo and Platense attack and defence ratings
San Lorenzo
Platense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats
- Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia — team news & stats
- Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
Before and after this match
San Lorenzo vs Platense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Lorenzo | 34.6% | 2.89 | -1.6% | 2.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Lorenzo | 34.6% |
| Draw | 33.2% | |
| Platense | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.9% |
| No | 62.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Lorenzo win | 10.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 70.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.9% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.9% |
San Lorenzo vs Platense stats
San Lorenzo and Platense recent form
| San Lorenzo |
DDWWLL |
| Platense |
WDWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Lorenzo and Platense season so far
San Lorenzo record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Platense record
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
San Lorenzo vs Platense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Platense | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Platense | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | San Lorenzo | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-13 | San Lorenzo | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Platense | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-10 | Platense | San Lorenzo | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-26 | San Lorenzo | Platense | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-27 | San Lorenzo | Platense | Copa Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-23 | San Lorenzo | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-16 | San Lorenzo | Platense | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Lorenzo vs Platense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 32.6%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.63 | 2.92 | 3.03 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.05 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 2.85 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.57 | 2.86 | 2.97 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 2.83 | 3.11 |
| SBO | 2.38 | 2.71 | 2.77 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .