Velez Sarsfield
vs
San Lorenzo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Velez Sarsfield
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.55.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
| Probability | Velez Sarsfield | Draw | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.5% | 27.4% | 12.1% |
| Market | 46.5% | 30.0% | 23.5% |
| Final | 50.0% | 29.4% | 20.6% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -0.7% | -2.9% |
Why Velez Sarsfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Velez Sarsfield below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.5% per unit staked (our 50.0% × 2.11 − 1).
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo match preview
Velez Sarsfield is set to face San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with a probability model indicating a 48% chance of a home win for Velez, a 34% likelihood of a draw, and an 18% chance of San Lorenzo winning. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Velez, which has a 19% probability. Velez has shown decent recent form, recording three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while San Lorenzo has managed two wins, three draws, and one loss in their recent outings.
In terms of expected goals, Velez Sarsfield is forecasted to score 1.16, whereas San Lorenzo is expected to net only 0.61. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 32%, while the probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 26%. The head-to-head record shows Velez Sarsfield with no wins, two draws, and one loss against San Lorenzo in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo attack and defence ratings
Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Racing Club v Aldosivi — match page
- Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central
- Defensa Y Justicia v Independiente — match page
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate — team news & stats
- Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central
- Newells Old Boys v Union Santa Fe — match page
Before and after this match
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velez Sarsfield | 50.0% | 2.00 | +3.5% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velez Sarsfield | 50.0% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| San Lorenzo | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.4% |
| No | 65.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Velez Sarsfield win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 39.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.0% |
| 2-0 | 14.6% | |
| 0-0 | 13.4% |
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo stats
Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo recent form
| Velez Sarsfield |
WWLDWD |
| San Lorenzo |
DWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo season so far
Velez Sarsfield record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Lorenzo record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | San Lorenzo | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-07 | San Lorenzo | Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-08 | Velez Sarsfield | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 30.0%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.14 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.10 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.05 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.08 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.10 | 3.94 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 2.90 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .