Boca Juniors
vs
River Plate
Garuda Lions Prediction: Boca Juniors
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Boca Juniors is the favourite, not a value bet.
Boca Juniors vs River Plate overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boca Juniors vs River Plate
| Probability | Boca Juniors | Draw | River Plate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.4% | 28.9% | 25.7% |
| Market | 42.8% | 30.9% | 26.3% |
| Final | 43.5% | 30.4% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +0.7% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
Why Boca Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.03.
Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.8% per unit staked (our 43.5% × 2.28 − 1).
Boca Juniors vs River Plate match preview
Boca Juniors and River Plate are set to clash in a highly anticipated Liga Profesional match. According to our model, Boca Juniors holds a 43% probability of winning, with a projected expected goals tally of 1.45 compared to River Plate's 1.03. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Boca Juniors, which has a probability of 11%. Both teams are showing solid recent form, with Boca Juniors recording three wins in their last five matches, while River Plate has also secured four victories in the same period.
In terms of goal-scoring, our model indicates a 51% chance that both teams will score, while there is a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters favors Boca Juniors, who have won twice against River Plate's single victory. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Boca Juniors and River Plate expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Boca Juniors and River Plate attack and defence ratings
Boca Juniors
River Plate
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Defensa Y Justicia v Independiente — match page
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page
- Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page
- Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central
- Newells Old Boys v Union Santa Fe — match page
- Lanus vs Gimnasia M.
Before and after this match
Boca Juniors vs River Plate markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.7% | 2.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boca Juniors | 43.5% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| River Plate | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boca Juniors win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Boca Juniors vs River Plate stats
Boca Juniors and River Plate recent form
| Boca Juniors |
WWWLDW |
| River Plate |
WWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Boca Juniors and River Plate season so far
Boca Juniors record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
River Plate record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boca Juniors vs River Plate head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | River Plate | Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Boca Juniors | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-27 | River Plate | Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Boca Juniors vs River Plate odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 30.9%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 3.04 | 3.52 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 2.97 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.59 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.40 |